Liga Nacional de Básquet (Argentina) · Tuesday, 13 October, 03:00 MSK · Polideportivo Carlos Cerutti

Atenas — Ferro

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Model prediction and result

91:86Came true

Atenas51%

Ferro49%

Model estimate at 00:08 MSK, the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 91:86: the model's most likely outcome, Atenas to win (51% incl. overtime), came true.

Evenly matched: Atenas 51%, Ferro 49%.

The model expects a score around 83:83 — 166 points in total.

Over 164.5 points (incl. overtime) — 51%.

Why

Team strength against the league average: Atenas −2.9, Ferro +0.6 points in regulation.

Probabilities

Expected points (incl. overtime): Atenas — Ferro		82.9–82.7
Total over 164.5 (incl. OT)		51%
Total under 164.5 (incl. OT)		49%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the regulation 1X2, the teams’ offence and defence, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

All handicaps
All totals
Atenas points
Ferro points
Regulation 1X2
Offence and defence strength

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Form

Atenas

08.10away · Olimpico91:87
06.10away · Quimsa77:83
13.05away · Argentino77:88
10.05away · Argentino53:61
07.05Argentino78:84

Ferro

10.10away · Instituto de Cordoba94:97
09.10away · Independiente de Oliva97:92
01.10away · Argentino68:79
03.06away · Gimnasia54:88
30.05Gimnasia81:73

Head to head

07.02.2026Ferro — Atenas93:79
18.11.2025Atenas — Ferro76:78
07.02.2025Ferro — Atenas84:79
13.11.2024Atenas — Ferro97:74
17.03.2023Ferro — Atenas88:87

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#	Team	P	W	L	PCT	GB
5, Play-in round for the quarter-finals	Gimnasia	6	4	2	.667	0.5
6, Play-in round for the quarter-finals	Atenas	3	2	1	.667	1
7, Play-in round for the quarter-finals	Instituto de Cordoba	3	2	1	.667	1
14	Boca Juniors	3	1	2	.333	2
15	Ferro	4	1	3	.250	2.5
16	Independiente de Oliva	1	0	1	.000	2

Season 2026/27 · by win percentage, ties by head-to-head record, then the points difference in those games and overall

Full table

Next matches

03:30
FerroPlatense21 October · Liga Nacional · preliminary
7228
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: —170.4
23:00
AtenasLanus23 October · Liga Nacional · preliminary
7426
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: —161.8

Liga Nacional on the same day

02:30
ArgentinoGimnasia
2575
2The most likely outcome came true: 2Final score 82:87. Model's score: —.156.4
04:00
OlimpicoBoca Juniors
3565
2The most likely outcome did not happen: 2Final score 93:80. Model's score: —.170.7

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 51% will not happen in roughly 49 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →