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Liga ACB (Spanish basketball league) · Sunday, 11 October, MSK · Palau Blaugrana

Barcelona — Valencia

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Model prediction and result

89:86Came true
Barcelona50%
Valencia50%
Model estimate at MSK, the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 89:86: the model's most likely outcome, Barcelona to win (50% incl. overtime), came true.

Evenly matched: Barcelona 50%, Valencia 50%.

The model expects a score around 97:97 — 193 points in total.

Over 192.5 points (incl. overtime) — 50%.

Why

  • Team strength against the league average: Barcelona +5.1, Valencia +8.3 points in regulation.

Probabilities

Expected points (incl. overtime): Barcelona — Valencia96.7–96.6
Total over 192.5 (incl. OT)50%
Total under 192.5 (incl. OT)50%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the regulation 1X2, the teams’ offence and defence, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All handicaps
  • All totals
  • Barcelona points
  • Valencia points
  • Regulation 1X2
  • Offence and defence strength
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Form

Barcelona

  • 09.10Zalgiris Kaunas81:88
  • 04.10away · Murcia94:100
  • 02.10away · Besiktas95:82
  • 29.09away · Dubai87:94
  • 26.09Leyma Coruna119:101

Valencia

  • 08.10Hapoel Tel Aviv93:82
  • 04.10away · Basket Zaragoza97:82
  • 02.10away · Lyon-Villeurbanne105:92
  • 29.09Baskonia111:88
  • 27.09Forca Lleida100:105

Head to head

  • 24.06.2026Barcelona — Valencia84:108
  • 22.06.2026Barcelona — Valencia80:88
  • 20.06.2026Valencia — Barcelona102:75
  • 18.06.2026Valencia — Barcelona112:113 OT
  • 31.05.2026Barcelona — Valencia77:102

Full record: 30 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWLPCTGB
5, PlayoffsBilbao321.6671
6, PlayoffsBarcelona321.6671
7, PlayoffsObradoiro CAB321.6671
13Leyma Coruna312.3332
14Valencia312.3332
15Murcia312.3332

Season 2026/27 · by win percentage, ties by head-to-head record, then the points difference in those games and overall

Full table

Next matches

  • BarcelonaMaccabi Tel Aviv13 October · EuroLeague
    1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 90:87. Model's score: —.178.8
  • ValenciaOlympiacos13 October · EuroLeague
    1The most likely outcome did not happen: 1Final score 97:102 in overtime. Model's score: —.184.0

Liga ACB on the same day

  • Obradoiro CABForca Lleida
    1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 91:89. Model's score: —.184.8
  • Real MadridManresa
    1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 120:83. Model's score: —.190.6
  • MurciaTenerife
    1The most likely outcome did not happen: 1Final score 77:90. Model's score: —.178.6
  • BaskoniaJoventut Badalona
    1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 93:73. Model's score: —.185.0
  • BilbaoSan Pablo Burgos
    1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 96:87. Model's score: —.183.4

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 50% will not happen in roughly 50 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →