NBB (Novo Basquete Brasil) · Thursday, 29 October, MSK

Botafogo — Caxias do Sul

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Model prediction for 29 October

Botafogo42%
Caxias do Sul58%
Model estimate at MSK

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Caxias do Sul are slightly stronger: 58% against 42%.

The model expects a score around 74:77 — 150 points in total.

Over 149.5 points (incl. overtime) — 51%.

Why

  • Team strength against the league average: Botafogo −8.6, Caxias do Sul −3.0 points in regulation.

Probabilities

Expected points (incl. overtime): Botafogo — Caxias do Sul73.9–76.6
Total over 149.5 (incl. OT)51%
Total under 149.5 (incl. OT)49%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the regulation 1X2, the teams’ offence and defence, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All handicaps
  • All totals
  • Botafogo points
  • Caxias do Sul points
  • Regulation 1X2
  • Offence and defence strength
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Form

Botafogo

  • 28.04Franca78:82
  • 26.04Franca79:89
  • 23.04away · Franca68:94
  • 18.04away · Vasco86:104
  • 12.04Flamengo89:102

Caxias do Sul

  • 01.05away · Brasilia70:71
  • 28.04Brasilia66:63
  • 25.04Brasilia70:78
  • 23.04away · Brasilia64:73
  • 18.04Corinthians Paulista79:92

Head to head

  • 22.03.2026Caxias do Sul — Botafogo67:68
  • 09.12.2025Botafogo — Caxias do Sul75:80
  • 07.02.2025Caxias do Sul — Botafogo78:67
  • 10.11.2024Botafogo — Caxias do Sul63:69
  • 19.01.2024Botafogo — Caxias do Sul76:82

Full record: 6 meetings →

NBB on the same day

  • PaulistanoFrancapreliminary
    2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: —167.3
  • 1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: —161.7

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 58% will not happen in roughly 42 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →