NBB (Novo Basquete Brasil) · Friday, 23 October, MSK

Brasilia — Corinthians Paulista

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Model prediction for 23 October

Brasilia64%
Corinthians Paulista36%
Model estimate at MSK

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Brasilia are clear favourites: 64% against 36% for the opponent.

The model expects a score around 82:77 — 159 points in total.

Over 158.5 points (incl. overtime) — 50%.

Why

  • Team strength against the league average: Brasilia +5.9, Corinthians Paulista +4.2 points in regulation.

Probabilities

Expected points (incl. overtime): Brasilia — Corinthians Paulista81.9–77.2
Total over 158.5 (incl. OT)50%
Total under 158.5 (incl. OT)50%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the regulation 1X2, the teams’ offence and defence, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All handicaps
  • All totals
  • Brasilia points
  • Corinthians Paulista points
  • Regulation 1X2
  • Offence and defence strength
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Form

Brasilia

  • 29.05away · Franca66:68
  • 27.05away · Franca71:69
  • 24.05Franca74:91
  • 22.05Franca67:50
  • 19.05away · Franca67:76

Corinthians Paulista

  • 27.05away · Pinheiros76:88
  • 24.05Pinheiros81:82
  • 21.05Pinheiros98:84
  • 19.05away · Pinheiros65:95
  • 13.05away · Minas92:81

Head to head

  • 21.03.2026Brasilia — Corinthians Paulista89:74
  • 13.12.2025Corinthians Paulista — Brasilia79:66
  • 23.01.2025Brasilia — Corinthians Paulista74:70
  • 03.11.2024Corinthians Paulista — Brasilia99:105
  • 23.01.2024Corinthians Paulista — Brasilia87:64

Full record: 13 meetings →

NBB on the same day

  • 2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: —162.0
  • 2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: —170.9

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 64% will not happen in roughly 36 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →