NBB (Novo Basquete Brasil) · Sunday, 18 October, MSK

Caxias do Sul — Cruzeiro

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Model prediction for 18 October

Caxias do Sul65%
Cruzeiro35%
Model estimate at MSK

In short

Caxias do Sul are clear favourites: 65% against 35% for the opponent.

The model expects a score around 81:77 — 158 points in total.

Over 157.5 points (incl. overtime) — 50%.

Why

  • Team strength against the league average: Caxias do Sul −3.0, Cruzeiro −4.8 points in regulation.

Probabilities

Expected points (incl. overtime): Caxias do Sul — Cruzeiro81.5–76.7
Total over 157.5 (incl. OT)50%
Total under 157.5 (incl. OT)50%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the regulation 1X2, the teams’ offence and defence, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All handicaps
  • All totals
  • Caxias do Sul points
  • Cruzeiro points
  • Regulation 1X2
  • Offence and defence strength
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Form

Caxias do Sul

  • 01.05away · Brasilia70:71
  • 28.04Brasilia66:63
  • 25.04Brasilia70:78
  • 23.04away · Brasilia64:73
  • 18.04Corinthians Paulista79:92

Cruzeiro

  • 30.04away · Minas93:103
  • 26.04Minas74:101
  • 25.04Minas97:81
  • 22.04away · Minas94:99
  • 17.04Cearense86:77

Head to head

  • 18.03.2026Cruzeiro — Caxias do Sul76:85
  • 02.12.2025Caxias do Sul — Cruzeiro78:63

NBB on the same day

  • 1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: —161.9
  • 1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: —168.0

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 65% will not happen in roughly 35 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →