LNBP (Mexican basketball league) · Tuesday, 13 October, MSK · Arena BUAP
Lobos Plateados — Freseros
☆ Save matchModel prediction and result
75:63Came true
In short
Final score 75:63: the model's most likely outcome, Lobos Plateados to win (81% incl. overtime), came true.
Lobos Plateados are clear favourites: 81% against 19% for the opponent.
The model expects a score around 92:81 — 173 points in total.
Over 172.5 points (incl. overtime) — 49%.
Why
- Team strength against the league average: Lobos Plateados +0.2, Freseros −9.7 points in regulation.
Probabilities
| Expected points (incl. overtime): Lobos Plateados — Freseros | 92.0–80.5 | |
| Total over 172.5 (incl. OT) | 49% | |
| Total under 172.5 (incl. OT) | 51% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the regulation 1X2, the teams’ offence and defence, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All handicaps
- All totals
- Lobos Plateados points
- Freseros points
- Regulation 1X2
- Offence and defence strength
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Form
- 12.10Freseros105:86
- 08.10away · El Calor de Cancun90:77
- 07.10away · El Calor de Cancun68:77
- 03.10away · Correcaminos90:85
- 02.10away · Correcaminos97:75
- 12.10away · Lobos Plateados86:105
- 08.10Dorados77:105
- 07.10Dorados85:105
- 03.10away · Santos87:108
- 02.10away · Santos81:96
Head to head
- 12.10.2026Lobos Plateados — Freseros105:86
- 12.09.2026Lobos Plateados — Freseros86:90
- 11.09.2026Lobos Plateados — Freseros71:82
- 05.08.2024Lobos Plateados — Freseros100:91
- 04.08.2024Lobos Plateados — Freseros92:94
Table
| # | Team | W | L | PCT | GB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finals | Panteras | 19 | 9 | .679 | 2 |
| 5, Play-in round for the quarter-finals | Lobos Plateados | 18 | 10 | .643 | 3 |
| 6, Play-in round for the quarter-finals | Dorados | 17 | 11 | .607 | 4 |
| 11, Play-in round for the quarter-finals | Gambusinos | 11 | 17 | .393 | 10 |
| 12, Play-in round for the quarter-finals | Freseros | 9 | 19 | .321 | 12 |
| 13 | El Calor de Cancun | 9 | 19 | .321 | 12 |
LNBP on the same day
- 58421The most likely outcome came true: 184:74Final score 84:74. Model's score: —.176.7
- 70301The most likely outcome came true: 188:87Final score 88:87. Model's score: —.167.1
- 57431The most likely outcome came true: 197:86Final score 97:86. Model's score: —.169.5
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 81% will not happen in roughly 19 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →