NBA (National Basketball Association): 2026/27 season forecast
10,000 simulations · 1200 matches to play · updated 14 October 2026
The model played out the remaining 1200 matches of the regular season, the play-in and the playoffs 10,000 times. Oklahoma City Thunder have the best chance to win the title: 18%, San Antonio Spurs 18%.
Chances of every team
By conference, sorted by projected wins. ▲▼ — change in percentage points over the last week. “Playoffs” includes getting there through the play-in. “Run-in” — how hard the remaining games are, 1 = the hardest. The schedule has 80 games per team so far: 2 more are added after the NBA Cup group stage, and the forecast counts only the known ones.
Eastern Conference
| # | Team | W–L | Proj. | Run-in | 1st in conf. | Top 6 | Play-in | Playoffs | Conf. finals | Finals | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | New York Knicks | 0–0 | 55–25 | 27 | 30% | 86% | 12% | 94% | 46% | 29% | 17% |
| 2 | Boston Celtics | 0–0 | 52–28 | 28 | 19% | 78% | 18% | 89% | 32% | 17% | 8% |
| 3 | Detroit Pistons | 0–0 | 51–29 | 21 | 15% | 74% | 21% | 87% | 29% | 15% | 7% |
| 4 | Charlotte Hornets | 0–0 | 48–32 | 24 | 10% | 64% | 27% | 80% | 21% | 10% | 4% |
| 5 | Cleveland Cavaliers | 0–0 | 46–34 | 23 | 7% | 57% | 30% | 73% | 16% | 7% | 3% |
| 6 | Toronto Raptors | 0–0 | 45–35 | 15 | 6% | 52% | 33% | 70% | 14% | 6% | 2% |
| 7 | Miami Heat | 0–0 | 43–37 | 25 | 4% | 43% | 38% | 62% | 11% | 5% | 2% |
| 8 | Atlanta Hawks | 0–0 | 42–38 | 18 | 4% | 42% | 38% | 62% | 11% | 5% | 2% |
| 9 | Orlando Magic | 0–0 | 42–38 | 19 | 3% | 40% | 39% | 61% | 9% | 3% | 1% |
| 10 | Philadelphia 76ers | 0–0 | 39–41 | 13 | 2% | 30% | 39% | 49% | 6% | 2% | 1% |
| 11 | Chicago Bulls | 0–0 | 32–48 | 11 | <1% | 12% | 29% | 23% | 2% | <1% | <1% |
| 12 | Indiana Pacers | 0–0 | 31–49 | 12 | <1% | 11% | 29% | 22% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| 13 | Milwaukee Bucks | 0–0 | 29–51 | 7 | <1% | 8% | 25% | 17% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| 14 | Brooklyn Nets | 0–0 | 23–57 | 1 | — | 2% | 12% | 6% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 15 | Washington Wizards | 0–0 | 22–58 | 4 | — | 2% | 11% | 5% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
Western Conference
| # | Team | W–L | Proj. | Run-in | 1st in conf. | Top 6 | Play-in | Playoffs | Conf. finals | Finals | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Oklahoma City Thunder | 0–0 | 57–23 | 30 | 34% | 90% | 8% | 96% | 50% | 30% | 18% |
| 2 | San Antonio Spurs | 0–0 | 56–24 | 29 | 31% | 89% | 9% | 95% | 50% | 30% | 18% |
| 3 | Denver Nuggets | 0–0 | 47–33 | 16 | 8% | 62% | 27% | 78% | 19% | 8% | 4% |
| 4 | Houston Rockets | 0–0 | 47–33 | 26 | 7% | 61% | 27% | 77% | 18% | 8% | 3% |
| 5 | Los Angeles Lakers | 0–0 | 43–37 | 14 | 4% | 49% | 33% | 67% | 12% | 5% | 2% |
| 6 | Los Angeles Clippers | 0–0 | 43–37 | 20 | 4% | 47% | 34% | 64% | 11% | 4% | 2% |
| 7 | Minnesota Timberwolves | 0–0 | 43–37 | 8 | 4% | 45% | 35% | 64% | 12% | 5% | 2% |
| 8 | Phoenix Suns | 0–0 | 42–38 | 22 | 3% | 44% | 35% | 62% | 10% | 4% | 1% |
| 9 | Portland Trail Blazers | 0–0 | 41–39 | 9 | 2% | 38% | 36% | 56% | 8% | 3% | 1% |
| 10 | Golden State Warriors | 0–0 | 38–42 | 17 | 2% | 30% | 38% | 48% | 5% | 2% | 1% |
| 11 | New Orleans Pelicans | 0–0 | 34–46 | 10 | 1% | 17% | 33% | 31% | 2% | 1% | <1% |
| 12 | Dallas Mavericks | 0–0 | 32–48 | 6 | <1% | 13% | 29% | 25% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| 13 | Memphis Grizzlies | 0–0 | 28–52 | 5 | <1% | 7% | 22% | 15% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| 14 | Utah Jazz | 0–0 | 27–53 | 2 | <1% | 5% | 18% | 12% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 15 | Sacramento Kings | 0–0 | 25–55 | 3 | <1% | 4% | 15% | 10% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
Chance of every place in the conference
Show the tables by conference
Eastern Conference
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York Knicks | 30 | 19 | 13 | 10 | 8 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |||
| Boston Celtics | 19 | 17 | 14 | 11 | 10 | 8 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | ||
| Detroit Pistons | 15 | 15 | 13 | 12 | 10 | 9 | 7 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | ||
| Charlotte Hornets | 10 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 9 | 9 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Cleveland Cavaliers | 7 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 11 | 10 | 9 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
| Toronto Raptors | 6 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 9 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
| Miami Heat | 4 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 10 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 9 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 |
| Atlanta Hawks | 4 | 5 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 9 | 9 | 7 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 1 |
| Orlando Magic | 3 | 5 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 9 | 7 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 1 |
| Philadelphia 76ers | 2 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 10 | 9 | 8 | 6 | 4 | 2 |
| Chicago Bulls | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 8 | 10 | 13 | 13 | 14 | 11 | 8 | |
| Indiana Pacers | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 12 | 14 | 14 | 12 | 9 | |
| Milwaukee Bucks | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 9 | 11 | 14 | 15 | 15 | 12 | ||
| Brooklyn Nets | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 7 | 10 | 16 | 24 | 30 | ||||
| Washington Wizards | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 7 | 10 | 15 | 22 | 34 |
Western Conference
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oklahoma City Thunder | 34 | 22 | 14 | 9 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| San Antonio Spurs | 31 | 21 | 14 | 10 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| Denver Nuggets | 8 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 10 | 9 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
| Houston Rockets | 7 | 11 | 11 | 12 | 10 | 10 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
| Los Angeles Lakers | 4 | 6 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 |
| Los Angeles Clippers | 4 | 6 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 1 |
| Minnesota Timberwolves | 4 | 6 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 9 | 10 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 1 |
| Phoenix Suns | 3 | 6 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 2 |
| Portland Trail Blazers | 2 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 2 |
| Golden State Warriors | 2 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 6 | 5 | 3 |
| New Orleans Pelicans | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 11 | 11 | 10 | 8 |
| Dallas Mavericks | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 8 | 10 | 10 | 12 | 13 | 12 | 11 | |
| Memphis Grizzlies | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 10 | 12 | 15 | 17 | 18 | ||
| Utah Jazz | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 9 | 12 | 15 | 19 | 23 | |||
| Sacramento Kings | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 8 | 11 | 14 | 20 | 28 |
Regular-season place, percent; empty cells are under 1%. Places 1–6 go straight to the playoffs, 7–10 to the play-in.
How it is calculated
A team’s strength is its average points margin against an average team on a neutral floor. It comes from game margins (overtime included), adjusted for the opponents and for home court (currently about 1.8 points). Last season is the starting point, but a team keeps only 70% of that level: rosters change between seasons. After that this season’s games decide, the latest counting most.
Every remaining game is played 10,000 times: the home side’s chance depends on the gap in strength and on home court. For the next three weeks the match prediction’s probability is used instead — it accounts for injuries and rest. Every simulation also moves each team’s strength by a random amount: a rating is only an estimate, and seasons bring trades and injuries.
Then it goes as in the NBA: places 1–6 in each conference go straight to the playoffs, 7–10 play the play-in (7th v 8th, 9th v 10th, then the loser of the first game v the winner of the second). Playoff series are best of seven with home court to the higher seed, and in the NBA Finals to the better regular-season record. Teams level on wins are separated by lot: the NBA’s tie-breakers are not modelled.