Kazakhstan Hockey Championship: 2026/27 season forecast
10,000 simulations · 180 matches to play · updated 14 October 2026
The model played the remaining 180 matches 10,000 times. Nomad Astana have the best chance to win the regular season: 60%, Torpedo 33%.
Race for first place
| Date | Nomad Astana | Torpedo | Karaganda | Kokshetau | Gornyak Rudny | Kulager |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 September | 17% | 44% | 24% | 6% | 6% | 3% |
| 14 September | 19% | 34% | 35% | 5% | 2% | 3% |
| 21 September | 24% | 38% | 20% | 10% | 3% | 3% |
| 28 September | 32% | 39% | 7% | 13% | 7% | 3% |
| 5 October | 40% | 46% | 3% | 3% | 6% | 1% |
| 12 October | 57% | 35% | 3% | 2% | 3% | <1% |
| 14 October | 60% | 33% | 3% | 2% | 2% | <1% |
Chances of every team
Sorted by projected points. ▲▼ — change in percentage points over the last week. “Run-in” — how hard the remaining games are, 1 = the hardest.
| # | Team | Pts | Proj. | Run-in | 1st | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nomad Astana | 34 (18) | 89 | 9 | 60%▲20 | >99% |
| 2 | Torpedo | 28 (18) | 85 | 10 | 33%▼13 | >99% |
| 3 | Karaganda | 24 (18) | 74 | 8 | 3% | >99% |
| 4 | Kokshetau | 27 (18) | 73 | 6 | 2%▼1 | >99% |
| 5 | Gornyak Rudny | 25 (18) | 71 | 7 | 2%▼4 | >99% |
| 6 | Kulager | 22 (18) | 64 | 5 | <1%▼1 | >99% |
| 7 | Almaty | 18 (18) | 49 | 4 | — | 98%▲1 |
| 8 | Beibarys Atyrau | 8 (18) | 37 | 3 | — | 76%▼15 |
| 9 | Aktobe | 9 (18) | 31 | 2 | — | 26%▲14 |
| 10 | Pavlodar | 1 (18) | 4 | 1 | — | <1% |
Chance of every place
Show the 10 × 10 table
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nomad Astana | 60 | 28 | 9 | 3 | 1 | |||||
| Torpedo | 33 | 45 | 14 | 6 | 2 | |||||
| Karaganda | 3 | 11 | 29 | 27 | 20 | 10 | 1 | |||
| Kokshetau | 2 | 8 | 24 | 26 | 24 | 13 | 2 | |||
| Gornyak Rudny | 2 | 7 | 20 | 26 | 27 | 17 | 2 | |||
| Kulager | 1 | 5 | 12 | 24 | 48 | 9 | 1 | |||
| Almaty | 2 | 11 | 70 | 14 | 2 | |||||
| Beibarys Atyrau | 1 | 13 | 61 | 24 | ||||||
| Aktobe | 3 | 23 | 74 | |||||||
| Pavlodar | 100 |
Percent; empty cells are under 1%.
How it is calculated
Each team gets an attack and a defence rating from this season’s matches (football: expected goals and actual goals, the opponents’ strength taken into account). Last season is only the starting point, worth eight games: after a few rounds this season decides.
Every remaining fixture is then played out with Poisson-distributed goals, 10,000 times, and each simulated season ends in a table by points, goal difference and goals scored. Ratings are only estimates and form changes, so every simulation also moves each team's strength by a random amount.
A league match within four days after a European game costs a team a little (on 2021–2026 data such sides took 0.08 points per match fewer than in their other games). Head-to-head tie-breakers, points deductions and domestic cups are not modelled. The forecast is recalculated as soon as new results come in.
Kazakhstan Championship: matches and table →
Kazakhstan Championship: power rankings →