Kazakhstan Hockey Championship · Wednesday, 21 October, 15:00 MSK

Beibarys Atyrau — Nomad Astana

Model prediction for 21 October

Beibarys Atyrau17%

Draw in regulation18%

Nomad Astana65%

Model estimate at 03:00 MSK

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Nomad Astana are clear favourites: 78% to win including overtime and shootout.

The model expects few goals: 5.5 in total, against a competition average of 6.1.

Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 52%.

Why

Nomad Astana are more dangerous in attack: 3.5 expected goals against 2.0.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Beibarys Atyrau — Nomad Astana		2.0–3.5
Beibarys Atyrau to win (incl. OT and shootout)		22%
Nomad Astana to win (incl. OT and shootout)		78%
Total over 5.5 (regulation)		52%
Total under 5.5 (regulation)		48%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

All totals
Totals incl. OT
Handicap Beibarys Atyrau
Beibarys Atyrau goals
Overtime chance
Full score grid

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Form

Beibarys Atyrau

13.10away · Aktobe1:2
12.10away · Aktobe1:2
07.10Almaty5:3
06.10Almaty1:4
02.10Torpedo2:9

Nomad Astana

11.10away · Kokshetau4:2
10.10away · Kokshetau2:3 OT
07.10away · Torpedo3:2 SO
06.10away · Torpedo3:2 OT
02.10Kulager5:4 SO

Head to head

24.09.2026Beibarys Atyrau — Nomad Astana1:2
23.09.2026Beibarys Atyrau — Nomad Astana1:3
22.01.2026Beibarys Atyrau — Nomad Astana0:8
10.10.2025Beibarys Atyrau — Nomad Astana1:2 OT
09.10.2025Beibarys Atyrau — Nomad Astana3:6

Full record: 16 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#	Team	P	W	OTL	L	Goals	+/−	Pts
1, Playoffs	Nomad Astana	18	16	2	0	83–36	+47	34
2, Playoffs	Torpedo	18	13	2	3	88–36	+52	28
8, Playoffs	Aktobe	18	4	1	13	45–83	-38	9
9	Beibarys Atyrau	18	3	2	13	38–59	-21	8
10	Pavlodar	18	0	1	17	19–140	-121	1

Season 2026/27 · 2 points for a win, 1 for an overtime or shootout loss

Full table

Kazakhstan Championship on the same day

17:00
AktobeKulagerpreliminary
2575
2The model's most likely outcome: 218%Model's score: 1:45.6
17:00
KokshetauPavlodarpreliminary
991
1The model's most likely outcome: 12%Model's score: 7:18.5

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 65% will not happen in roughly 35 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →