AHL (American Hockey League) · Monday, 12 October, MSK · Giant Center
Hershey Bears — Texas Stars
☆ Save matchModel prediction and result
6:1Came true
In short
Final score 6:1: the model's most likely outcome, Hershey Bears to win (55% incl. overtime), came true.
Hershey Bears are favourites: 55% to win including overtime and shootout.
5.8 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (5.8).
Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 57%.
Why
- Hershey Bears are more dangerous in attack: 3.1 expected goals against 2.7.
- Hershey Bears: second game in two days — the model lowers their attack and defence.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Hershey Bears — Texas Stars | 3.0–2.8 | |
| Hershey Bears to win (incl. OT and shootout) | 55% | |
| Texas Stars to win (incl. OT and shootout) | 45% | |
| Total over 5.5 (regulation) | 57% | |
| Total under 5.5 (regulation) | 43% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Totals incl. OT
- Handicap Hershey Bears
- Hershey Bears goals
- Overtime chance
- Full score grid
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Form
- 11.10Texas Stars2:1
- 04.10Charlotte Checkers3:2
- 04.10Charlotte Checkers2:5
- 08.05Wilkes-Barre/Scranton1:4
- 06.05Wilkes-Barre/Scranton3:4 OT
- 11.10away · Hershey Bears1:2
- 04.10Iowa Wild3:4 SO
- 03.10Iowa Wild4:3 SO
- 06.05away · Chicago Wolves1:6
- 03.05away · Chicago Wolves5:4 OT
Head to head
- 11.10.2026Hershey Bears — Texas Stars2:1
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts | P% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Toronto Marlies | 4 | 3 | +4 | 6 | .750 |
| 8 | Hershey Bears | 4 | 3 | +4 | 6 | .750 |
| 9 | Cleveland Monsters | 4 | 3 | +2 | 6 | .750 |
| 24 | Abbotsford Canucks | 4 | 1 | -4 | 3 | .375 |
| 25 | Texas Stars | 4 | 1 | -6 | 3 | .375 |
| 26 | Rockford IceHogs | 3 | 1 | -2 | 2 | .333 |
Next matches
- Manitoba MooseTexas Stars17 October · AHL48522The model's most likely outcome: 221%Model's score: 2:35.5
- Hershey BearsProvidence Bruins18 October · AHL46542The model's most likely outcome: 222%Model's score: 2:35.1
AHL on the same day
- 47532The most likely outcome came true: 221%2:4Final score 2:4. Model's score: 2:4, exactly right.5.8
- 51491The most likely outcome did not happen: 121%2:3OTFinal score 2:3 in overtime. Model's score: 3:2.5.6
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 44% will not happen in roughly 56 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →