Liiga (Finnish hockey league) · Thursday, 8 October, 18:30 MSK · Veikkaus Arena

Jokerit — IFK Helsinki

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Model prediction and result

3:2 OTMissed

Jokerit34%

Draw in regulation23%

IFK Helsinki44%

Model estimate at 17:03 MSK, the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 3:2 OT: the model's most likely outcome, IFK Helsinki to win (56% incl. overtime), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 56% fails in about 44 matches out of 100 on average.

IFK Helsinki are favourites: 56% to win including overtime and shootout.

The model expects few goals: 4.8 in total, against a competition average of 5.3.

Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 39%.

Why

IFK Helsinki are more dangerous in attack: 2.5 expected goals against 2.2.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Jokerit — IFK Helsinki		2.3–2.5
Jokerit to win (incl. OT and shootout)		44%
IFK Helsinki to win (incl. OT and shootout)		56%
Total over 5.5 (regulation)		39%
Total under 5.5 (regulation)		61%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

All totals
Totals incl. OT
Handicap Jokerit
Jokerit goals
Overtime chance
Full score grid

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Form

Jokerit

03.10away · SaiPa2:3
02.10away · Tappara2:3 OT
29.09Hameenlinna3:0
26.09away · Kiekko-Espoo1:4
25.09TPS Turku1:2

IFK Helsinki

03.10away · Vaasan Sport3:2 OT
26.09away · Pelicans1:2
25.09JYP3:4
23.09Karpat3:1
19.09Lukko2:3 OT

Head to head

No previous meetings in the data.

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#	Team	P	W	OTW	OTL	L	Goals	+/−	Pts
13, Relegation play-off	KalPa	11	4	0	1	6	27–29	-2	13
14, Relegation play-off	IFK Helsinki	11	3	1	2	5	31–34	-3	13
15, Relegation play-off	Vaasan Sport	11	3	1	2	5	20–31	-11	13
16, Relegation play-off	Jokerit	13	2	1	2	8	25–42	-17	10
17, Relegation	KooKoo	12	1	0	1	10	25–52	-27	4

Season 2026/27 · 3 points for a regulation win, 2 for an overtime or shootout win, 1 for an overtime or shootout loss

Full table

Next matches

17:00
JokeritIlves10 October · Liiga
3268
2The most likely outcome came true: 221%Final score 0:3. Model's score: 1:3.4.9
18:00
IFK HelsinkiKalPa10 October · Liiga
4852
2The most likely outcome did not happen: 222%Final score 6:1. Model's score: 2:3.5.0

Liiga on the same day

18:30
SaiPaJYP
6040
1The most likely outcome did not happen: 121%Final score 1:2. Model's score: 4:2.5.6

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 44% will not happen in roughly 56 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →