Liiga (Finnish hockey league) · Tuesday, 27 October, MSK
KalPa — Vaasan Sport
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 27 October
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
KalPa are clear favourites: 72% to win including overtime and shootout.
5.0 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (5.3).
Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 43%.
Why
- KalPa are more dangerous in attack: 3.1 expected goals against 1.9.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: KalPa — Vaasan Sport | 3.1–1.9 | |
| KalPa to win (incl. OT and shootout) | 72% | |
| Vaasan Sport to win (incl. OT and shootout) | 28% | |
| Total over 5.5 (regulation) | 43% | |
| Total under 5.5 (regulation) | 57% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Totals incl. OT
- Handicap KalPa
- KalPa goals
- Overtime chance
- Full score grid
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Form
- 07.10Ilves2:1
- 03.10IFK Helsinki2:3 OT
- 26.09Karpat1:2
- 23.09Kiekko-Espoo0:1 OT
- 19.09away · Karpat2:3
Head to head
- 04.03.2026Vaasan Sport — KalPa1:6
- 09.01.2026KalPa — Vaasan Sport4:3
- 04.12.2025KalPa — Vaasan Sport5:3
- 29.11.2025Vaasan Sport — KalPa2:5
- 15.02.2025KalPa — Vaasan Sport4:1
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12, Play-in round for the quarter-finals | Pelicans | 10 | 5 | +1 | 16 |
| 13, Relegation play-off | KalPa | 11 | 4 | -2 | 13 |
| 14, Relegation play-off | IFK Helsinki | 11 | 3 | -3 | 13 |
| 15, Relegation play-off | Vaasan Sport | 11 | 3 | -11 | 13 |
| 16, Relegation play-off | Jokerit | 13 | 2 | -17 | 10 |
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 59% will not happen in roughly 41 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →