VHL (All-Russian Hockey League) · Sunday, 18 October, MSK

Kaluga — Gornyak

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Model prediction for 18 October

Kaluga43%
Draw in regulation25%
Gornyak32%
Model estimate at MSK

In short

Kaluga are favourites: 56% to win including overtime and shootout.

The model expects few goals: 3.9 in total, against a competition average of 4.7.

Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 23%.

Why

  • Kaluga are more dangerous in attack: 2.1 expected goals against 1.8.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Kaluga — Gornyak2.1–1.8
Kaluga to win (incl. OT and shootout)56%
Gornyak to win (incl. OT and shootout)44%
Total over 5.5 (regulation)23%
Total under 5.5 (regulation)77%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

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  • Totals incl. OT
  • Handicap Kaluga
  • Kaluga goals
  • Overtime chance
  • Full score grid
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Form

Kaluga

  • 12.10Orsk1:2 SO
  • 07.10away · Perm3:1
  • 05.10away · Toros Neftekamsk1:0
  • 03.10away · Izhevsk3:1
  • 01.10away · Olympia3:2 OT

Gornyak

  • 06.10Bars2:3
  • 04.10Almetyevsk1:2 SO
  • 02.10CSK VVS5:2
  • 26.09away · Khimik4:1
  • 24.09away · Zvezda Moscow3:2

Head to head

No previous meetings in the data.

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWOTLLGoals+/−Pts
7, PlayoffsMetallurg Novokuznetsk1483327–16+1119
8, PlayoffsKaluga1383229–19+1019
9, PlayoffsKhimik1482446–28+1818
12, PlayoffsTambov1372434–34016
13, PlayoffsGornyak1071229–18+1115
14, PlayoffsBars1471635–44-915

Season 2026/27 · 2 points for a win, 1 for an overtime or shootout loss

Full table

VHL on the same day

  • 1The model's most likely outcome: 122%Model's score: 3:14.4
  • 2The model's most likely outcome: 222%Model's score: 1:34.5

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 43% will not happen in roughly 57 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →