Kazakhstan Hockey Championship · Wednesday, 21 October, 17:00 MSK

Kokshetau — Pavlodar

Model prediction for 21 October

Kokshetau98%

Draw in regulation2%

Pavlodar1%

Model estimate at 03:00 MSK

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Kokshetau are clear favourites: 99% to win including overtime and shootout.

The model expects plenty of goals: 8.5 in total, against a competition average of 6.1.

Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 87%.

Why

Kokshetau are more dangerous in attack: 7.3 expected goals against 1.2.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Kokshetau — Pavlodar		7.3–1.2
Kokshetau to win (incl. OT and shootout)		99%
Pavlodar to win (incl. OT and shootout)		1%
Total over 5.5 (regulation)		87%
Total under 5.5 (regulation)		13%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

All totals
Totals incl. OT
Handicap Kokshetau
Kokshetau goals
Overtime chance
Full score grid

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Form

Kokshetau

11.10Nomad Astana2:4
10.10Nomad Astana3:2 OT
07.10away · Kulager4:3
06.10away · Kulager4:3
03.10Almaty3:2

Pavlodar

12.10away · Torpedo0:8
11.10away · Torpedo0:13
08.10Aktobe0:6
07.10Aktobe2:5
02.10away · Karaganda0:9

Head to head

28.09.2026Kokshetau — Pavlodar5:3
27.09.2026Kokshetau — Pavlodar11:2
11.02.2026Kokshetau — Pavlodar9:2
10.02.2026Kokshetau — Pavlodar11:0
10.12.2025Pavlodar — Kokshetau1:10

Full record: 17 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#	Team	P	W	OTL	L	Goals	+/−	Pts
2, Playoffs	Torpedo	18	13	2	3	88–36	+52	28
3, Playoffs	Kokshetau	18	13	1	4	64–43	+21	27
4, Playoffs	Gornyak Rudny	18	12	1	5	71–44	+27	25
9	Beibarys Atyrau	18	3	2	13	38–59	-21	8
10	Pavlodar	18	0	1	17	19–140	-121	1

Season 2026/27 · 2 points for a win, 1 for an overtime or shootout loss

Full table

Kazakhstan Championship on the same day

15:00
Beibarys AtyrauNomad Astanapreliminary
2278
2The model's most likely outcome: 218%Model's score: 1:45.5
17:00
AktobeKulagerpreliminary
2575
2The model's most likely outcome: 218%Model's score: 1:45.6

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 98% will not happen in roughly 2 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →