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Czech Extraliga (hockey) · Wednesday, 28 October, MSK

Kometa Brno — Trinec

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Model prediction for 28 October

Kometa Brno35%
Draw in regulation22%
Trinec43%
Model estimate at MSK

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Trinec are favourites: 55% to win including overtime and shootout.

5.1 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (5.1).

Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 45%.

Why

  • The teams are almost level on expected goals: 2.4 and 2.7.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Kometa Brno — Trinec2.4–2.7
Kometa Brno to win (incl. OT and shootout)45%
Trinec to win (incl. OT and shootout)55%
Total over 5.5 (regulation)45%
Total under 5.5 (regulation)55%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

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  • Totals incl. OT
  • Handicap Kometa Brno
  • Kometa Brno goals
  • Overtime chance
  • Full score grid
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Form

Kometa Brno

  • 11.10Plzen1:2 OT
  • 08.10away · Sparta Prague4:3 OT
  • 05.10away · Ceske Budejovice1:5
  • 02.10Mlada Boleslav3:2 SO
  • 27.09Pardubice3:5

Trinec

  • 11.10away · Pardubice4:5 OT
  • 09.10Mountfield HK5:2
  • 04.10away · Olomouc9:0
  • 02.10Litvinov3:2
  • 29.09Kladno6:4

Head to head

  • 18.09.2026Trinec — Kometa Brno6:5
  • 27.02.2026Kometa Brno — Trinec5:1
  • 30.12.2025Trinec — Kometa Brno4:3 SO
  • 16.11.2025Kometa Brno — Trinec4:3
  • 30.09.2025Trinec — Kometa Brno1:0

Full record: 13 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWOTWOTLLGoals+/−Pts
1, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finalsTrinec10901049–23+2628
2, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finalsPardubice11810247–31+1626
10, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsLitvinov10311524–28-412
11, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsKometa Brno9221425–28-311
12, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsMlada Boleslav10211623–36-139

Season 2026/27 · 3 points for a regulation win, 2 for an overtime or shootout win, 1 for an overtime or shootout loss

Full table

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 43% will not happen in roughly 57 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →