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Czech Extraliga (hockey) · Thursday, 15 October, MSK

Litvinov — Mountfield HK

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Model prediction for 15 October

Litvinov32%
Draw in regulation23%
Mountfield HK45%
Model estimate at MSK

In short

Mountfield HK are favourites: 58% to win including overtime and shootout.

The model expects few goals: 4.7 in total, against a competition average of 5.1.

Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 37%.

Why

  • Mountfield HK are more dangerous in attack: 2.5 expected goals against 2.2.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Litvinov — Mountfield HK2.2–2.5
Litvinov to win (incl. OT and shootout)42%
Mountfield HK to win (incl. OT and shootout)58%
Total over 5.5 (regulation)37%
Total under 5.5 (regulation)63%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Totals incl. OT
  • Handicap Litvinov
  • Litvinov goals
  • Overtime chance
  • Full score grid
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Form

Litvinov

  • 11.10away · Mlada Boleslav1:2
  • 09.10Olomouc3:1
  • 04.10Kladno2:3 OT
  • 02.10away · Trinec2:3
  • 29.09Liberec5:4 SO

Mountfield HK

  • 11.10Olomouc3:1
  • 09.10away · Trinec2:5
  • 04.10Vitkovice3:2 OT
  • 02.10away · Kladno4:3 SO
  • 29.09Sparta Prague4:3

Head to head

  • 29.01.2026Litvinov — Mountfield HK3:6
  • 26.12.2025Mountfield HK — Litvinov2:3
  • 02.11.2025Litvinov — Mountfield HK1:3
  • 26.09.2025Mountfield HK — Litvinov2:0
  • 26.01.2025Mountfield HK — Litvinov3:2 OT

Full record: 12 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWOTWOTLLGoals+/−Pts
4, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finalsPlzen10331325–22+316
5, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsMountfield HK10420428–26+216
6, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsCeske Budejovice10501427–31-416
9, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsLiberec10402429–29014
10, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsLitvinov10311524–28-412
11, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsKometa Brno9221425–28-311

Season 2026/27 · 3 points for a regulation win, 2 for an overtime or shootout win, 1 for an overtime or shootout loss

Full table

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 45% will not happen in roughly 55 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →