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Czech Extraliga (hockey) · Thursday, 8 October, MSK · LOGSPEED CZ Arena

Plzen — Ceske Budejovice

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Model prediction and result

4:1Came true
Plzen50%
Draw in regulation22%
Ceske Budejovice28%
Model estimate at MSK, the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 4:1: the model's most likely outcome, Plzen to win (63% incl. overtime), came true.

Plzen are clear favourites: 63% to win including overtime and shootout.

The model expects few goals: 4.6 in total, against a competition average of 5.1.

Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 36%.

Why

  • Plzen are more dangerous in attack: 2.6 expected goals against 2.0.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Plzen — Ceske Budejovice2.6–2.0
Plzen to win (incl. OT and shootout)63%
Ceske Budejovice to win (incl. OT and shootout)37%
Total over 5.5 (regulation)36%
Total under 5.5 (regulation)64%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Totals incl. OT
  • Handicap Plzen
  • Plzen goals
  • Overtime chance
  • Full score grid
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Form

Plzen

  • 04.10away · Karlovy Vary1:4
  • 02.10away · Pardubice2:4
  • 29.09away · Mlada Boleslav4:1
  • 27.09Mountfield HK2:1
  • 25.09away · Kladno4:3 OT

Ceske Budejovice

  • 05.10Kometa Brno5:1
  • 01.10away · Sparta Prague2:4
  • 29.09away · Pardubice2:5
  • 27.09Litvinov5:4
  • 25.09away · Karlovy Vary1:5

Head to head

  • 16.01.2026Ceske Budejovice — Plzen5:1
  • 05.12.2025Plzen — Ceske Budejovice2:3 OT
  • 19.10.2025Ceske Budejovice — Plzen0:3
  • 14.09.2025Plzen — Ceske Budejovice1:4
  • 02.03.2025Plzen — Ceske Budejovice2:1 OT

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWOTWOTLLGoals+/−Pts
3, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finalsKarlovy Vary9600322–16+618
4, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finalsPlzen10331325–22+316
5, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsMountfield HK10420428–26+216
6, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsCeske Budejovice10501427–31-416
7, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsKladno10322329–32-315

Season 2026/27 · 3 points for a regulation win, 2 for an overtime or shootout win, 1 for an overtime or shootout loss

Full table

Next matches

  • Kometa BrnoPlzen11 October · Czech Extraliga
    2The most likely outcome came true: 223%Final score 1:2 in overtime. Model's score: 1:2.4.4
  • Ceske BudejoviceLiberec11 October · Czech Extraliga
    2The most likely outcome did not happen: 222%Final score 4:3. Model's score: 2:3.5.1

Czech Extraliga on the same day

  • Sparta PragueKometa Brno
    1The most likely outcome did not happen: 120%Final score 3:4 in overtime. Model's score: 3:1.5.1

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 50% will not happen in roughly 50 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →