AHL (American Hockey League) · Thursday, 22 October, MSK
Rochester Americans — Utica Comets
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 22 October
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Rochester Americans are favourites: 53% to win including overtime and shootout.
The model expects few goals: 5.4 in total, against a competition average of 5.8.
Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 50%.
Why
- The teams are almost level on expected goals: 2.8 and 2.6.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Rochester Americans — Utica Comets | 2.8–2.6 | |
| Rochester Americans to win (incl. OT and shootout) | 53% | |
| Utica Comets to win (incl. OT and shootout) | 47% | |
| Total over 5.5 (regulation) | 50% | |
| Total under 5.5 (regulation) | 50% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Totals incl. OT
- Handicap Rochester Americans
- Rochester Americans goals
- Overtime chance
- Full score grid
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Form
- 11.10away · Utica Comets1:2
- 10.10Syracuse Crunch7:1
- 04.10away · Belleville Senators2:3 SO
- 03.10Toronto Marlies3:1
- 26.04away · Toronto Marlies2:4
- 12.10away · Belleville Senators4:2
- 11.10Rochester Americans2:1
- 03.10away · Providence Bruins2:1
- 19.04away · Providence Bruins4:2
- 18.04Providence Bruins4:1
Head to head
- 11.10.2026Utica Comets — Rochester Americans2:1
- 12.03.2026Rochester Americans — Utica Comets1:4
- 15.02.2026Rochester Americans — Utica Comets4:7
- 15.02.2026Utica Comets — Rochester Americans1:4
- 08.02.2026Utica Comets — Rochester Americans1:5
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts | P% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Utica Comets | 3 | 3 | +4 | 6 | 1.000 |
| 2 | Milwaukee Admirals | 2 | 2 | +5 | 4 | 1.000 |
| 13 | Wilkes-Barre/Scranton | 4 | 2 | +8 | 5 | .625 |
| 14 | Rochester Americans | 4 | 2 | +6 | 5 | .625 |
| 15 | San Diego Gulls | 4 | 2 | +2 | 5 | .625 |
AHL on the same day
- Grand Rapids GriffinsManitoba Moosepreliminary64361The model's most likely outcome: 121%Model's score: 4:25.2
- Laval RocketSyracuse Crunchpreliminary51491The model's most likely outcome: 122%Model's score: 3:25.2
- Toronto MarliesHamilton Hammerspreliminary57431The model's most likely outcome: 120%Model's score: 4:26.2
- Iowa WildMilwaukee Admiralspreliminary45552The model's most likely outcome: 222%Model's score: 2:35.3
- San Diego GullsCoachella Valley Firebirdspreliminary45552The model's most likely outcome: 221%Model's score: 2:45.7
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 42% will not happen in roughly 58 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →