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Liiga (Finnish hockey league) · Thursday, 8 October, MSK · Kisapuisto

SaiPa — JYP

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Model prediction and result

1:2Missed
SaiPa49%
Draw in regulation21%
JYP31%
Model estimate at MSK, the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 1:2: the model's most likely outcome, SaiPa to win (60% incl. overtime), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 60% fails in about 40 matches out of 100 on average.

SaiPa are favourites: 60% to win including overtime and shootout.

5.6 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (5.3).

Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 54%.

Why

  • SaiPa are more dangerous in attack: 3.1 expected goals against 2.5.

Probabilities

Expected goals: SaiPa — JYP3.1–2.5
SaiPa to win (incl. OT and shootout)60%
JYP to win (incl. OT and shootout)40%
Total over 5.5 (regulation)54%
Total under 5.5 (regulation)46%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Totals incl. OT
  • Handicap SaiPa
  • SaiPa goals
  • Overtime chance
  • Full score grid
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Form

SaiPa

  • 03.10Jokerit3:2
  • 02.10away · KalPa3:4
  • 30.09away · Karpat1:4
  • 26.09away · Tappara4:2
  • 25.09away · Assat5:0

JYP

  • 03.10away · TPS Turku1:4
  • 02.10away · Hameenlinna1:2
  • 25.09away · IFK Helsinki4:3
  • 19.09away · Pelicans3:1
  • 17.09away · Jokerit4:2

Head to head

  • 21.01.2026SaiPa — JYP2:3 OT
  • 20.12.2025JYP — SaiPa1:2
  • 28.11.2025JYP — SaiPa3:7
  • 17.10.2025SaiPa — JYP1:2 OT
  • 25.02.2025JYP — SaiPa4:5

Full record: 13 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWOTWOTLLGoals+/−Pts
4, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finalsKarpat13523335–34+122
5, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsJYP10700330–25+521
6, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsKiekko-Espoo13513442–32+1020
7, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsSaiPa11521330–20+1020
8, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsLukko11610429–23+620

Season 2026/27 · 3 points for a regulation win, 2 for an overtime or shootout win, 1 for an overtime or shootout loss

Full table

Next matches

  • Kiekko-EspooJYP9 October · Liiga
    1The most likely outcome came true: 122%Final score 6:1. Model's score: 3:2.5.3
  • SaiPaHameenlinna15 October · Liiga
    1The model's most likely outcome: 121%Model's score: 3:14.8

Liiga on the same day

  • JokeritIFK Helsinki
    2The most likely outcome did not happen: 223%Final score 3:2 in overtime. Model's score: 1:3.4.8

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 49% will not happen in roughly 51 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →