KHL · Wednesday, 7 October, MSK · Bolshoy Ice Dome
Sochi — Spartak Moscow
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2:5Came true
In short
Final score 2:5: the model's most likely outcome, Spartak Moscow to win (72% incl. overtime), came true.
Spartak Moscow are clear favourites: 72% to win including overtime and shootout.
5.2 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (5.2).
Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 47%.
Why
- Spartak Moscow are more dangerous in attack: 3.2 expected goals against 2.0.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Sochi — Spartak Moscow | 2.0–3.2 | |
| Sochi to win (incl. OT and shootout) | 28% | |
| Spartak Moscow to win (incl. OT and shootout) | 72% | |
| Total over 5.5 (regulation) | 47% | |
| Total under 5.5 (regulation) | 53% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Totals incl. OT
- Handicap Sochi
- Sochi goals
- Overtime chance
- Full score grid
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Form
- 03.10Nizhny Novgorod0:6
- 30.09Salavat Ufa6:3
- 28.09away · Shanghai1:4
- 26.09away · Cherepovets1:3
- 24.09away · Nizhny Novgorod0:3
- 04.10Barys Astana3:4 SO
- 02.10Magnitogorsk0:2
- 30.09Tractor Chelyabinsk2:4
- 26.09Yekaterinburg2:4
- 24.09Avangard Omsk1:2 OT
Head to head
- 04.11.2025Sochi — Spartak Moscow0:1 OT
- 02.11.2025Sochi — Spartak Moscow5:2
- 26.10.2025Spartak Moscow — Sochi5:3
- 07.09.2025Spartak Moscow — Sochi4:3
- 20.03.2025Spartak Moscow — Sochi3:1
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12, Playoffs: top 8 in each conference | Barys Astana | 14 | 8 | +14 | 16 |
| 13, Playoffs: top 8 in each conference | Spartak Moscow | 14 | 7 | +8 | 16 |
| 14, Playoffs: top 8 in each conference | Bars Kazan | 15 | 7 | -1 | 15 |
| 20 | Tractor Chelyabinsk | 13 | 5 | -9 | 10 |
| 21 | Sochi | 14 | 3 | -30 | 6 |
| 22 | Lada | 15 | 1 | -35 | 6 |
Next match
- SochiSpartak Moscow9 October · KHL26742The most likely outcome came true: 219%0:2Final score 0:2. Model's score: 1:4.5.4
KHL on the same day
- 38622The most likely outcome came true: 222%4:5OTFinal score 4:5 in overtime. Model's score: 1:3.4.6
- 69311The most likely outcome came true: 120%3:0Final score 3:0. Model's score: 4:2.5.4
- 65351The most likely outcome did not happen: 121%2:3Final score 2:3. Model's score: 3:1.4.8
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 59% will not happen in roughly 41 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →