NHL · Tuesday, 20 October, MSK
Toronto Maple Leafs — San Jose Sharks
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 20 October
In short
Toronto Maple Leafs are favourites: 58% to win including overtime and shootout.
6.0 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (6.0).
Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 63%.
Why
- Toronto Maple Leafs are more dangerous in attack: 3.3 expected goals against 2.8.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Toronto Maple Leafs — San Jose Sharks | 3.3–2.8 | |
| Toronto Maple Leafs to win (incl. OT and shootout) | 58% | |
| San Jose Sharks to win (incl. OT and shootout) | 42% | |
| Total over 5.5 (regulation) | 63% | |
| Total under 5.5 (regulation) | 37% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Totals incl. OT
- Handicap Toronto Maple Leafs
- Toronto Maple Leafs goals
- Overtime chance
- Full score grid
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Form
- 14.10away · Utah Mammoth4:5
- 11.10away · Colorado Avalanche6:3
- 09.10away · Vegas Golden Knights3:4 SO
- 07.10Nashville Predators5:4 OT
- 04.10Ottawa Senators2:3
- 14.10Boston Bruins3:6
- 10.10Edmonton Oilers1:3
- 09.10away · St. Louis Blues3:2 OT
- 06.10away · Dallas Stars0:5
- 04.10Los Angeles Kings5:4 OT
Head to head
- 03.04.2026San Jose Sharks — Toronto Maple Leafs4:1
- 12.12.2025Toronto Maple Leafs — San Jose Sharks2:3 OT
- 28.03.2025San Jose Sharks — Toronto Maple Leafs6:5 SO
- 04.03.2025Toronto Maple Leafs — San Jose Sharks2:3 SO
- 10.01.2024Toronto Maple Leafs — San Jose Sharks7:1
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | St. Louis Blues | 6 | 3 | +3 | 7 |
| 17, Playoffs: wild cards, 2 per conference | Toronto Maple Leafs | 7 | 3 | +1 | 7 |
| 18 | Montreal Canadiens | 6 | 3 | -3 | 7 |
| 23 | New Jersey Devils | 6 | 3 | -6 | 6 |
| 24 | San Jose Sharks | 6 | 3 | -7 | 6 |
| 25 | Dallas Stars | 6 | 2 | +2 | 5 |
NHL on the same day
- 58421The model's most likely outcome: 123%Model's score: 4:15.6
- 34662The model's most likely outcome: 222%Model's score: 1:45.2
- 55451The model's most likely outcome: 123%Model's score: 5:26.0
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 46% will not happen in roughly 54 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →