AHL (American Hockey League) · Thursday, 22 October, MSK
Toronto Marlies — Hamilton Hammers
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 22 October
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Toronto Marlies are favourites: 57% to win including overtime and shootout.
6.2 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (5.8).
Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 63%.
Why
- Toronto Marlies are more dangerous in attack: 3.3 expected goals against 2.9.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Toronto Marlies — Hamilton Hammers | 3.3–2.9 | |
| Toronto Marlies to win (incl. OT and shootout) | 57% | |
| Hamilton Hammers to win (incl. OT and shootout) | 43% | |
| Total over 5.5 (regulation) | 63% | |
| Total under 5.5 (regulation) | 37% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Totals incl. OT
- Handicap Toronto Marlies
- Toronto Marlies goals
- Overtime chance
- Full score grid
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Form
- 11.10away · Hamilton Hammers5:2
- 10.10away · Hamilton Hammers5:4 SO
- 03.10Hamilton Hammers5:3
- 03.10away · Rochester Americans1:3
- 20.06Chicago Wolves4:3
- 11.10Toronto Marlies2:5
- 10.10Toronto Marlies4:5 SO
- 03.10away · Toronto Marlies3:5
- 03.10away · Belleville Senators5:2
Head to head
- 11.10.2026Hamilton Hammers — Toronto Marlies2:5
- 10.10.2026Hamilton Hammers — Toronto Marlies4:5 SO
- 03.10.2026Toronto Marlies — Hamilton Hammers5:3
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts | P% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Colorado Eagles | 4 | 3 | +4 | 6 | .750 |
| 7 | Toronto Marlies | 4 | 3 | +4 | 6 | .750 |
| 8 | Hershey Bears | 4 | 3 | +4 | 6 | .750 |
| 22 | Belleville Senators | 4 | 2 | -3 | 4 | .500 |
| 23 | Hamilton Hammers | 4 | 1 | -3 | 3 | .375 |
| 24 | Abbotsford Canucks | 4 | 1 | -4 | 3 | .375 |
AHL on the same day
- Grand Rapids GriffinsManitoba Moosepreliminary64361The model's most likely outcome: 121%Model's score: 4:25.2
- Laval RocketSyracuse Crunchpreliminary51491The model's most likely outcome: 122%Model's score: 3:25.2
- Rochester AmericansUtica Cometspreliminary53471The model's most likely outcome: 122%Model's score: 3:25.4
- Iowa WildMilwaukee Admiralspreliminary45552The model's most likely outcome: 222%Model's score: 2:35.3
- San Diego GullsCoachella Valley Firebirdspreliminary45552The model's most likely outcome: 221%Model's score: 2:45.7
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 46% will not happen in roughly 54 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →