VHL (All-Russian Hockey League): 2026/27 season forecast
10,000 simulations · 674 matches to play · updated 13 October 2026
The model played the remaining 674 matches 10,000 times. Khimik have the best chance to win the regular season: 17%, Metallurg Novokuznetsk 15%.
Race for first place
| Date | Almetyevsk | Metallurg Novokuznetsk | Khimik | Gornyak | HC Yugra | Omskie Krylia |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 September | 11% | 33% | 9% | 2% | 7% | 5% |
| 14 September | 21% | 7% | 30% | 5% | 18% | 1% |
| 21 September | 34% | 19% | 23% | 3% | 9% | <1% |
| 28 September | 26% | 18% | 17% | 13% | 3% | 3% |
| 5 October | 19% | 8% | 18% | 20% | 3% | 5% |
| 12 October | 12% | 16% | 18% | 13% | 5% | 6% |
| 13 October | 11% | 15% | 17% | 12% | 3% | 12% |
Chances of every team
Sorted by projected points. ▲▼ — change in percentage points over the last week. “Run-in” — how hard the remaining games are, 1 = the hardest.
| # | Team | Pts | Proj. | Run-in | 1st | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Metallurg Novokuznetsk | 19 (14) | 81 | 12 | 15%▲7 | 98%▲1 |
| 2 | Khimik | 18 (14) | 81 | 28 | 17%▼1 | 98% |
| 3 | Almetyevsk | 22 (15) | 79 | 22 | 11%▼8 | 96%▼2 |
| 4 | Omskie Krylia | 20 (13) | 79 | 9 | 12%▲7 | 96%▲10 |
| 5 | Gornyak | 15 (10) | 78 | 26 | 12%▼8 | 93%▼5 |
| 6 | Orsk | 19 (12) | 76 | 27 | 7%▼2 | 92%▼2 |
| 7 | Magnitka Magnitogorsk | 14 (11) | 76 | 24 | 7%▲3 | 92%▲1 |
| 8 | Kaluga | 19 (13) | 74 | 20 | 4%▲3 | 88%▲15 |
| 9 | AKM | 19 (14) | 74 | 23 | 4%▼2 | 87%▼4 |
| 10 | SKA-VMF St. Petersburg | 16 (12) | 74 | 21 | 4%▲3 | 87%▲16 |
| 11 | HC Yugra | 12 (12) | 73 | 30 | 3% | 89%▼3 |
| 12 | Buran Voronezh | 22 (14) | 73 | 17 | 3%▲3 | 85%▲22 |
| 13 | Perm | 16 (12) | 70 | 19 | 2%▼1 | 76%▼8 |
| 14 | Tambov | 16 (13) | 62 | 7 | <1% | 47%▲1 |
| 15 | Toros Neftekamsk | 14 (13) | 62 | 10 | <1%▼1 | 47%▼27 |
| 16 | Ryazan | 14 (15) | 61 | 11 | <1% | 44%▲25 |
| 17 | HC Norilsk | 20 (15) | 61 | 1 | <1% | 42%▲22 |
| 18 | Dinamo St. Petersburg | 13 (13) | 61 | 29 | <1% | 44%▼7 |
| 19 | Dizel | 12 (13) | 59 | 6 | <1% | 36%▼7 |
| 20 | Rubin Tyumen | 14 (12) | 59 | 18 | <1% | 35%▲5 |
| 21 | Bars | 15 (14) | 57 | 15 | <1% | 29%▲17 |
| 22 | Dyn. Altay | 12 (12) | 55 | 8 | <1% | 24%▼21 |
| 23 | Olympia | 11 (14) | 53 | 14 | <1% | 17%▲5 |
| 24 | Kristall Saratov | 15 (12) | 53 | 3 | <1% | 17%▼14 |
| 25 | Zvezda Moscow | 11 (14) | 51 | 16 | <1% | 13%▲4 |
| 26 | Izhevsk | 8 (13) | 49 | 13 | — | 10%▼4 |
| 27 | Kurgan | 10 (12) | 47 | 4 | — | 7%▼4 |
| 28 | Chelmet Chelyabinsk | 8 (11) | 47 | 25 | — | 8%▼15 |
| 29 | Krasnoyarsk | 8 (14) | 42 | 2 | — | 2%▲1 |
| 30 | CSK VVS | 9 (16) | 41 | 5 | — | 1%▼21 |
Chance of every place
Show the 30 × 30 table
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metallurg Novokuznetsk | 15 | 13 | 13 | 10 | 9 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||||||||||||
| Khimik | 17 | 13 | 12 | 10 | 9 | 8 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||||||||||||
| Almetyevsk | 11 | 11 | 10 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||||||||||
| Omskie Krylia | 12 | 10 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||||||||||
| Gornyak | 12 | 10 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||||||||
| Orsk | 7 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||||||||
| Magnitka Magnitogorsk | 7 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 7 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||||||||
| Kaluga | 4 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||||||
| AKM | 4 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||||||
| SKA-VMF St. Petersburg | 4 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 6 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | ||||||||
| HC Yugra | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||||||
| Buran Voronezh | 3 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||||||
| Perm | 2 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| Tambov | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Toros Neftekamsk | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |||
| Ryazan | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |||||
| HC Norilsk | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | ||||
| Dinamo St. Petersburg | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | ||
| Dizel | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |||
| Rubin Tyumen | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |||
| Bars | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||||
| Dyn. Altay | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 3 | ||||||
| Olympia | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 3 | |||||||
| Kristall Saratov | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 5 | |||||||
| Zvezda Moscow | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 5 | |||||||||
| Izhevsk | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 7 | |||||||||
| Kurgan | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 10 | 10 | |||||||||||
| Chelmet Chelyabinsk | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 11 | 12 | 14 | |||||||||||
| Krasnoyarsk | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 8 | 10 | 13 | 17 | 23 | |||||||||||||||
| CSK VVS | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 8 | 11 | 13 | 18 | 24 |
Percent; empty cells are under 1%.
How it is calculated
Each team gets an attack and a defence rating from this season’s matches (football: expected goals and actual goals, the opponents’ strength taken into account). Last season is only the starting point, worth eight games: after a few rounds this season decides.
Every remaining fixture is then played out with Poisson-distributed goals, 10,000 times, and each simulated season ends in a table by points, goal difference and goals scored. Ratings are only estimates and form changes, so every simulation also moves each team's strength by a random amount.
A league match within four days after a European game costs a team a little (on 2021–2026 data such sides took 0.08 points per match fewer than in their other games). Head-to-head tie-breakers, points deductions and domestic cups are not modelled. The forecast is recalculated as soon as new results come in.