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Tennis: ATP, Shanghai, hard · Tuesday, 13 October, MSK

Gea A. — Mensik J.

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Model prediction and result

2:0Missed
Gea A.44%
Mensik J.56%
Model estimate at MSK, the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 2:0: the model's most likely outcome, Mensik J. to win (56%), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 56% fails in about 44 matches out of 100 on average.

Mensik J. are slightly stronger: 56% against 44%.

Over 23.5 games — 51%.

Why

  • Rating on hard: Gea A. 1675, Mensik J. 1761.

Probabilities

Games over 23.551%
Games under 23.549%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • Games handicap
  • Sets handicap
  • First set
  • Gea A. games
  • Mensik J. games
  • Score in sets
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Form

Gea A.

  • 11.10Shelton B.2:0
  • 09.10Humbert U.2:1
  • 07.10Faria J.2:1
  • 02.10Hurkacz H.1:2
  • 30.09Zhang Z.2:0

Mensik J.

  • 11.10Cerundolo F.2:1
  • 09.10Kecmanovic M.2:0
  • 03.10Cerundolo F.0:2
  • 01.10Bublik A.2:0

Head to head

No previous meetings in the data.

Next match

ATP on the same day

  • De Minaur A.Khachanov K.
    1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 2:0. Model's score: 2:0, exactly right.22.5
  • Zverev A.Bublik A.
    1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 2:1. Model's score: 2:0.21.5
  • Hurkacz H.Davidovich Fokina A.
    2The most likely outcome came true: 2Final score 1:2. Model's score: 0:2.24.5

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 56% will not happen in roughly 44 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →