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Liga Nacional de Básquet (Argentina) · Tuesday, 13 October, MSK · El Fortín de las Morochas

Argentino — Gimnasia

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Model prediction and result

82:87Came true
Argentino25%
Gimnasia75%
Model estimate at MSK, the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 82:87: the model's most likely outcome, Gimnasia to win (75% incl. overtime), came true.

Gimnasia are clear favourites: 75% against 25% for the opponent.

The model expects a score around 74:82 — 156 points in total.

Over 155.5 points (incl. overtime) — 51%.

Why

  • Team strength against the league average: Argentino −8.3, Gimnasia +3.7 points in regulation.

Probabilities

Expected points (incl. overtime): Argentino — Gimnasia74.1–82.3
Total over 155.5 (incl. OT)51%
Total under 155.5 (incl. OT)49%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the regulation 1X2, the teams’ offence and defence, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All handicaps
  • All totals
  • Argentino points
  • Gimnasia points
  • Regulation 1X2
  • Offence and defence strength
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Form

Argentino

  • 11.10San Martin82:79
  • 01.10Ferro79:68
  • 13.05Atenas88:77
  • 10.05Atenas61:53
  • 07.05away · Atenas84:78

Gimnasia

  • 11.10away · Racing de Chivilcoy78:72
  • 09.10away · San Lorenzo73:89
  • 05.10La Union92:86
  • 01.10away · Penarol57:62
  • 29.09away · Lanus92:74

Head to head

  • 18.04.2026Gimnasia — Argentino89:74
  • 21.11.2025Argentino — Gimnasia64:79
  • 17.04.2025Gimnasia — Argentino113:74
  • 09.01.2025Argentino — Gimnasia61:80
  • 29.02.2024Gimnasia — Argentino84:77

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWLPCTGB
4, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finalsPenarol1101.0001
5, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsGimnasia642.6670.5
6, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsAtenas321.6671
7, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsInstituto de Cordoba321.6671
8, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsArgentino321.6671
9, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsLa Union211.5001.5

Season 2026/27 · by win percentage, ties by head-to-head record, then the points difference in those games and overall

Full table

Next matches

  • ArgentinoBoca Juniors22 October · Liga Nacional · preliminary
    2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: —171.4
  • GimnasiaFerro29 October · Liga Nacional · preliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: —161.3

Liga Nacional on the same day

  • AtenasFerro
    1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 91:86. Model's score: —.165.6
  • OlimpicoBoca Juniors
    2The most likely outcome did not happen: 2Final score 93:80. Model's score: —.170.7

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 75% will not happen in roughly 25 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →