Liga Nacional de Básquet (Argentina) · Sunday, 11 October, MSK · El Fortín de las Morochas
Argentino — San Martin
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In short
Final score 82:79: the model's most likely outcome, San Martin to win (62% incl. overtime), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 62% fails in about 38 matches out of 100 on average.
San Martin are clear favourites: 62% against 38% for the opponent.
The model expects a score around 77:81 — 157 points in total.
Over 156.5 points (incl. overtime) — 51%.
Why
- Team strength against the league average: Argentino −8.9, San Martin −1.5 points in regulation.
Probabilities
| Expected points (incl. overtime): Argentino — San Martin | 76.8–80.5 | |
| Total over 156.5 (incl. OT) | 51% | |
| Total under 156.5 (incl. OT) | 49% |
223 more model lines in Premium
All totals and handicaps, team totals, the regulation 1X2, the teams’ offence and defence, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All handicaps
- All totals
- Argentino points
- San Martin points
- Regulation 1X2
- Offence and defence strength
Form
- 01.10Ferro79:68
- 13.05Atenas88:77
- 10.05Atenas61:53
- 07.05away · Atenas84:78
- 05.05away · Atenas93:96
- 09.10away · Racing de Chivilcoy123:126
- 01.10Instituto de Cordoba73:81
- 01.05Boca Juniors97:101
- 28.04away · Boca Juniors81:83
- 25.04away · Boca Juniors95:98
Head to head
- 29.03.2026Argentino — San Martin79:82
- 01.11.2025San Martin — Argentino94:78
- 29.04.2025San Martin — Argentino66:82
- 01.02.2025Argentino — San Martin70:69
- 06.04.2024San Martin — Argentino76:56
Table
| # | Team | W | L | PCT | GB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7, Play-in round for the quarter-finals | Instituto de Cordoba | 2 | 1 | .667 | 1 |
| 8, Play-in round for the quarter-finals | Argentino | 2 | 1 | .667 | 1 |
| 9, Play-in round for the quarter-finals | La Union | 1 | 1 | .500 | 1.5 |
| 16 | Independiente de Oliva | 0 | 1 | .000 | 2 |
| 17, Relegation play-off | San Martin | 0 | 3 | .000 | 3 |
| 18, Relegation play-off | Obera TC | 0 | 2 | .000 | 2.5 |
Next matches
- ArgentinoGimnasia13 October · Liga Nacional25752The most likely outcome came true: 282:87Final score 82:87. Model's score: —.156.4
- San MartinOlimpico21 October · Liga Nacional · preliminary62381The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: —161.4
Liga Nacional on the same day
- 68321The most likely outcome came true: 1105:96Final score 105:96. Model's score: —.164.4
- 41592The most likely outcome came true: 272:78Final score 72:78. Model's score: —.160.1
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 62% will not happen in roughly 38 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →