Liga Nacional de Básquet (Argentina) · Sunday, 11 October, MSK · Ciudad de Santiago del Estero
Quimsa — Boca Juniors
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105:96Came true
In short
Final score 105:96: the model's most likely outcome, Quimsa to win (68% incl. overtime), came true.
Quimsa are clear favourites: 68% against 32% for the opponent.
The model expects a score around 85:79 — 164 points in total.
Over 163.5 points (incl. overtime) — 51%.
Why
- Team strength against the league average: Quimsa +6.8, Boca Juniors +5.0 points in regulation.
Probabilities
| Expected points (incl. overtime): Quimsa — Boca Juniors | 85.0–79.5 | |
| Total over 163.5 (incl. OT) | 51% | |
| Total under 163.5 (incl. OT) | 49% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the regulation 1X2, the teams’ offence and defence, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All handicaps
- All totals
- Quimsa points
- Boca Juniors points
- Regulation 1X2
- Offence and defence strength
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Form
- 06.10Atenas83:77
- 04.10Platense94:67
- 21.06away · Gimnasia56:68
- 18.06Gimnasia88:60
- 14.06away · Gimnasia77:74
- 08.10Obera TC96:73
- 01.06Quimsa83:94
- 30.05Quimsa99:92
- 26.05away · Quimsa78:91
- 23.05away · Quimsa76:88
Head to head
- 01.06.2026Boca Juniors — Quimsa83:94
- 30.05.2026Boca Juniors — Quimsa99:92
- 26.05.2026Quimsa — Boca Juniors91:78
- 23.05.2026Quimsa — Boca Juniors88:76
- 25.01.2026Boca Juniors — Quimsa66:75
Table
| # | Team | W | L | PCT | GB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finals | Quimsa | 3 | 0 | 1.000 | — |
| 2, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finals | San Lorenzo | 1 | 0 | 1.000 | 1 |
| 13 | Olimpico | 1 | 2 | .333 | 2 |
| 14 | Boca Juniors | 1 | 2 | .333 | 2 |
| 15 | Ferro | 1 | 3 | .250 | 2.5 |
Next matches
- OlimpicoBoca Juniors13 October · Liga Nacional35652The most likely outcome did not happen: 293:80Final score 93:80. Model's score: —.170.7
- ArgentinoQuimsa23 October · Liga Nacional · preliminary17832The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: —166.6
Liga Nacional on the same day
- 38622The most likely outcome did not happen: 282:79Final score 82:79. Model's score: —.157.4
- 41592The most likely outcome came true: 272:78Final score 72:78. Model's score: —.160.1
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 68% will not happen in roughly 32 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →