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EuroLeague (basketball) · Friday, 9 October, MSK · Palau Blaugrana

Barcelona — Zalgiris Kaunas

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Model prediction and result

81:88Missed
Barcelona58%
Zalgiris Kaunas42%
Model estimate at MSK, the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 81:88: the model's most likely outcome, Barcelona to win (58% incl. overtime), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 58% fails in about 42 matches out of 100 on average.

Barcelona are slightly stronger: 58% against 42%.

The model expects a score around 86:83 — 169 points in total.

Over 167.5 points (incl. overtime) — 51%.

Why

  • Team strength against the league average: Barcelona +0.5, Zalgiris Kaunas +1.6 points in regulation.

Probabilities

Expected points (incl. overtime): Barcelona — Zalgiris Kaunas85.5–83.2
Total over 167.5 (incl. OT)51%
Total under 167.5 (incl. OT)49%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the regulation 1X2, the teams’ offence and defence, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All handicaps
  • All totals
  • Barcelona points
  • Zalgiris Kaunas points
  • Regulation 1X2
  • Offence and defence strength
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Form

Barcelona

  • 04.10away · Murcia94:100
  • 02.10away · Besiktas95:82
  • 29.09away · Dubai87:94
  • 26.09Leyma Coruna119:101
  • 24.09Anadolu Efes89:82

Zalgiris Kaunas

  • 01.10away · Paris78:82
  • 29.09Olympiacos91:93
  • 24.09away · Crvena Zvezda Meridianbet83:77
  • 08.05Fenerbahce90:94
  • 06.05Fenerbahce81:78

Head to head

  • 02.04.2026Zalgiris Kaunas — Barcelona83:71
  • 23.10.2025Barcelona — Zalgiris Kaunas73:88
  • 21.03.2025Barcelona — Zalgiris Kaunas82:70
  • 03.10.2024Zalgiris Kaunas — Barcelona74:67
  • 12.01.2024Barcelona — Zalgiris Kaunas91:73

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWLPCTGB
7, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsDubai532.6002
8, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsBarcelona532.6002
9, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsBesiktas422.5002.5
12Real Madrid523.4003
13Zalgiris Kaunas523.4003
14Lyon-Villeurbanne523.4003

Season 2026/27 · by win percentage, ties by head-to-head record, then the points difference in those games and overall

Full table

Next matches

  • BarcelonaValencia11 October · Liga ACB
    1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 89:86. Model's score: —.193.2
  • FenerbahceZalgiris Kaunas13 October · EuroLeague
    1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 99:80. Model's score: —.161.1

EuroLeague on the same day

  • OlympiacosAnadolu Efes
    1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 89:66. Model's score: —.171.7
  • BaskoniaBesiktas
    1The most likely outcome did not happen: 1Final score 84:92. Model's score: —.187.2

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 58% will not happen in roughly 42 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →