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Liga ACB (Spanish basketball league) · Sunday, 11 October, MSK · Fernando Buesa Arena

Baskonia — Joventut Badalona

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Model prediction and result

93:73Came true
Baskonia74%
Joventut Badalona26%
Model estimate at MSK, the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 93:73: the model's most likely outcome, Baskonia to win (74% incl. overtime), came true.

Baskonia are clear favourites: 74% against 26% for the opponent.

The model expects a score around 96:89 — 185 points in total.

Over 184.5 points (incl. overtime) — 49%.

Why

  • Team strength against the league average: Baskonia +6.7, Joventut Badalona +2.4 points in regulation.

Facts

  • Joventut Badalona: 4 defeats in a row.
  • Last 5 meetings: Baskonia 2 wins, Joventut Badalona 3.

Probabilities

Expected points (incl. overtime): Baskonia — Joventut Badalona96.3–88.7
Total over 184.5 (incl. OT)49%
Total under 184.5 (incl. OT)51%

224 more model lines in Premium

All totals and handicaps, team totals, the regulation 1X2, the teams’ offence and defence, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All handicaps
  • All totals
  • Baskonia points
  • Joventut Badalona points
  • Regulation 1X2
  • Offence and defence strength
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Form

Baskonia

  • 09.10Besiktas84:92
  • 04.10Basquet Girona118:78
  • 02.10Olimpia Milano86:76
  • 29.09away · Valencia88:111
  • 27.09away · San Pablo Burgos98:97

Joventut Badalona

  • 27.09away · Breogan104:110
  • 14.06Valencia75:87
  • 12.06away · Valencia76:90
  • 10.06away · Valencia117:118
  • 07.06away · Baskonia96:88

Head to head

  • 07.06.2026Baskonia — Joventut Badalona88:96
  • 05.06.2026Joventut Badalona — Baskonia82:63
  • 03.06.2026Baskonia — Joventut Badalona85:71
  • 18.04.2026Joventut Badalona — Baskonia81:69
  • 25.01.2026Baskonia — Joventut Badalona87:77

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWLPCTGB
1, PlayoffsBaskonia3301.000—
2, PlayoffsReal Madrid3301.000—
16MoraBanc Andorra202.0002.5
17, RelegationJoventut Badalona202.0002.5
18, RelegationManresa303.0003

Season 2026/27 · by win percentage, ties by head-to-head record, then the points difference in those games and overall

Full table

Next matches

  • BaskoniaDubai13 October · EuroLeague
    1The most likely outcome did not happen: 1Final score 79:93. Model's score: —.178.0
  • Joventut BadalonaMoraBanc Andorra14 October · Liga ACB
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: —178.4

Liga ACB on the same day

  • Obradoiro CABForca Lleida
    1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 91:89. Model's score: —.184.8
  • Real MadridManresa
    1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 120:83. Model's score: —.190.6
  • MurciaTenerife
    1The most likely outcome did not happen: 1Final score 77:90. Model's score: —.178.6
  • BilbaoSan Pablo Burgos
    1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 96:87. Model's score: —.183.4
  • BarcelonaValencia
    1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 89:86. Model's score: —.193.2

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 74% will not happen in roughly 26 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →