PremiumTelegram
EN
Sections

Liga ACB (Spanish basketball league) · Sunday, 11 October, MSK · Bilbao Arena

Bilbao — San Pablo Burgos

☆ Save match

Model prediction and result

96:87Came true
Bilbao60%
San Pablo Burgos40%
Model estimate at MSK, the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 96:87: the model's most likely outcome, Bilbao to win (60% incl. overtime), came true.

Bilbao are clear favourites: 60% against 40% for the opponent.

The model expects a score around 93:90 — 183 points in total.

Over 182.5 points (incl. overtime) — 50%.

Why

  • Team strength against the league average: Bilbao −1.3, San Pablo Burgos −1.1 points in regulation.

Facts

  • Last 5 meetings: Bilbao 3 wins, San Pablo Burgos 2.

Probabilities

Expected points (incl. overtime): Bilbao — San Pablo Burgos93.3–90.2
Total over 182.5 (incl. OT)50%
Total under 182.5 (incl. OT)50%

223 more model lines in Premium

All totals and handicaps, team totals, the regulation 1X2, the teams’ offence and defence, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All handicaps
  • All totals
  • Bilbao points
  • San Pablo Burgos points
  • Regulation 1X2
  • Offence and defence strength
Get Premiumfrom $5.99 a month

Form

Bilbao

  • 04.10away · Leyma Coruna101:104
  • 26.09Manresa107:92
  • 05.06Valencia71:88
  • 03.06away · Valencia80:83
  • 29.05away · Tenerife87:82

San Pablo Burgos

  • 07.10away · Aris80:93
  • 04.10away · Forca Lleida94:81
  • 30.09Cedevita Olimpija85:81
  • 27.09Baskonia97:98
  • 29.05Granada110:105

Head to head

  • 07.03.2026San Pablo Burgos — Bilbao96:88
  • 12.10.2025Bilbao — San Pablo Burgos95:85
  • 16.02.2022San Pablo Burgos — Bilbao104:97 OT
  • 24.10.2021Bilbao — San Pablo Burgos87:81
  • 18.05.2021Bilbao — San Pablo Burgos98:89

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWLPCTGB
4, PlayoffsBasket Zaragoza321.6671
5, PlayoffsBilbao321.6671
6, PlayoffsBarcelona321.6671
8, PlayoffsTenerife321.6671
9San Pablo Burgos312.3332
10Basquet Girona312.3332

Season 2026/27 · by win percentage, ties by head-to-head record, then the points difference in those games and overall

Full table

Next matches

Liga ACB on the same day

  • Obradoiro CABForca Lleida
    1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 91:89. Model's score: —.184.8
  • Real MadridManresa
    1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 120:83. Model's score: —.190.6
  • MurciaTenerife
    1The most likely outcome did not happen: 1Final score 77:90. Model's score: —.178.6
  • BaskoniaJoventut Badalona
    1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 93:73. Model's score: —.185.0
  • BarcelonaValencia
    1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 89:86. Model's score: —.193.2

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 60% will not happen in roughly 40 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →