NBA (National Basketball Association) · Thursday, 22 October, MSK

Houston Rockets — Dallas Mavericks

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Model prediction for 22 October

Houston Rockets62%
Dallas Mavericks38%
Model estimate at MSK

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Houston Rockets are clear favourites: 62% against 38% for the opponent.

The model expects a score around 115:110 — 225 points in total.

Over 224.5 points (incl. overtime) — 50%.

Why

  • Pace: Houston Rockets 98.8, Dallas Mavericks 104.3 possessions per 48 minutes.

Probabilities

Expected points (incl. overtime): Houston Rockets — Dallas Mavericks114.6–110.3
Total over 224.5 (incl. OT)50%
Total under 224.5 (incl. OT)50%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the regulation 1X2, who may miss the game, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

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  • Dallas Mavericks points
  • Regulation 1X2
  • Who may miss the game
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Form

Houston Rockets

  • 02.05Los Angeles Lakers78:98
  • 30.04away · Los Angeles Lakers99:93
  • 27.04Los Angeles Lakers115:96
  • 25.04Los Angeles Lakers108:112
  • 22.04away · Los Angeles Lakers94:101

Dallas Mavericks

  • 13.04Chicago Bulls149:128
  • 11.04away · San Antonio Spurs120:139
  • 09.04away · Phoenix Suns107:112
  • 08.04away · Los Angeles Clippers103:116
  • 06.04Los Angeles Lakers134:128

Head to head

  • 01.02.2026Houston Rockets — Dallas Mavericks111:107
  • 04.01.2026Dallas Mavericks — Houston Rockets110:104
  • 07.12.2025Dallas Mavericks — Houston Rockets122:109
  • 04.11.2025Houston Rockets — Dallas Mavericks110:102
  • 15.03.2025Houston Rockets — Dallas Mavericks133:96

Full record: 26 meetings →

NBA on the same day

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 62% will not happen in roughly 38 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →