EuroLeague (basketball) · Friday, 23 October, 21:15 MSK

Olympiacos — Fenerbahce

Model prediction for 23 October

Olympiacos74%

Fenerbahce26%

Model estimate at 15:06 MSK

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Olympiacos are clear favourites: 74% against 26% for the opponent.

The model expects a score around 88:81 — 169 points in total.

Over 168.5 points (incl. overtime) — 50%.

Why

Team strength against the league average: Olympiacos +7.1, Fenerbahce +2.8 points in regulation.

Facts

League table: Olympiacos — No. 2, 4–1; Fenerbahce — No. 3, 4–1.
Last 5 meetings: Olympiacos 2 wins, Fenerbahce 3.

Probabilities

Expected points (incl. overtime): Olympiacos — Fenerbahce		88.4–80.7
Total over 168.5 (incl. OT)		50%
Total under 168.5 (incl. OT)		50%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the regulation 1X2, the teams’ offence and defence, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

All handicaps
All totals
Olympiacos points
Fenerbahce points
Regulation 1X2
Offence and defence strength

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Form

Olympiacos

13.10away · Valencia102:97
09.10Anadolu Efes89:66
01.10away · Virtus Bologna94:96
29.09away · Zalgiris Kaunas93:91
24.09away · Baskonia106:89

Fenerbahce

13.10Zalgiris Kaunas99:80
08.10away · Panathinaikos74:92
02.10Dubai76:66
29.09Bayern100:76
25.09Virtus Bologna78:68

Head to head

22.05.2026Olympiacos — Fenerbahce79:61
17.03.2026Olympiacos — Fenerbahce104:87
06.01.2026Fenerbahce — Olympiacos88:80
24.01.2025Olympiacos — Fenerbahce77:87
04.10.2024Fenerbahce — Olympiacos82:71

Full record: 20 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#	Team	P	W	L	PCT	GB
1, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finals	Panathinaikos	5	5	0	1.000	—
2, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finals	Olympiacos	5	4	1	.800	1
3, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finals	Fenerbahce	5	4	1	.800	1
4, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finals	Valencia	5	4	1	.800	1

Season 2026/27 · by win percentage, ties by head-to-head record, then the points difference in those games and overall

Full table

EuroLeague on the same day

20:00
Zalgiris KaunasLyon-Villeurbannepreliminary
8218
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: —170.3
21:45
ParisValenciapreliminary
3367
2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: —187.3

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 74% will not happen in roughly 26 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →