Swiss National League (hockey) · Friday, 30 October, MSK
Ajoie — Bern
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 30 October
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Bern are favourites: 62% to win including overtime and shootout.
The model expects few goals: 4.9 in total, against a competition average of 5.4.
Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 41%.
Why
- Bern are more dangerous in attack: 2.7 expected goals against 2.1.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Ajoie — Bern | 2.1–2.7 | |
| Ajoie to win (incl. OT and shootout) | 38% | |
| Bern to win (incl. OT and shootout) | 62% | |
| Total over 5.5 (regulation) | 41% | |
| Total under 5.5 (regulation) | 59% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Totals incl. OT
- Handicap Ajoie
- Ajoie goals
- Overtime chance
- Full score grid
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Form
- 10.10Langnau Tigers5:4 OT
- 08.10away · Fribourg2:7
- 04.10Lugano5:4
- 02.10away · Davos1:3
- 29.09Lausanne3:0
- 10.10away · Ambri-Piotta2:1 OT
- 09.10Biel4:2
- 03.10away · Rapperswil-Jona3:4 OT
- 02.10Servette2:3 SO
- 29.09away · Fribourg2:5
Head to head
- 25.09.2026Bern — Ajoie2:3 OT
- 01.02.2026Bern — Ajoie5:0
- 02.01.2026Ajoie — Bern3:4
- 28.10.2025Bern — Ajoie4:5
- 20.09.2025Ajoie — Bern4:0
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finals | Fribourg | 11 | 4 | +9 | 18 |
| 5, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finals | Ajoie | 11 | 2 | -3 | 16 |
| 6, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finals | Lugano | 10 | 4 | +3 | 15 |
| 8, Play-in round for the quarter-finals | Ambri-Piotta | 10 | 4 | -6 | 15 |
| 9, Play-in round for the quarter-finals | Bern | 9 | 3 | +1 | 14 |
| 10, Play-in round for the quarter-finals | Zug | 7 | 4 | +10 | 13 |
National League on the same day
- BielEHC Klotenpreliminary64361The model's most likely outcome: 121%Model's score: 4:25.0
- DavosRapperswil-Jonapreliminary69311The model's most likely outcome: 120%Model's score: 4:25.3
- FribourgServettepreliminary63371The model's most likely outcome: 121%Model's score: 4:25.0
- ZugLangnau Tigerspreliminary58421The model's most likely outcome: 122%Model's score: 4:25.1
- ZurichAmbri-Piottapreliminary75251The model's most likely outcome: 119%Model's score: 4:15.2
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 49% will not happen in roughly 51 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →