Swiss National League (hockey) · Saturday, 31 October, MSK
Ambri-Piotta — Lugano
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 31 October
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Lugano are favourites: 53% to win including overtime and shootout.
5.3 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (5.4).
Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 48%.
Why
- The teams are almost level on expected goals: 2.6 and 2.7.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Ambri-Piotta — Lugano | 2.6–2.7 | |
| Ambri-Piotta to win (incl. OT and shootout) | 47% | |
| Lugano to win (incl. OT and shootout) | 53% | |
| Total over 5.5 (regulation) | 48% | |
| Total under 5.5 (regulation) | 52% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Totals incl. OT
- Handicap Ambri-Piotta
- Ambri-Piotta goals
- Overtime chance
- Full score grid
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Form
- 10.10Bern1:2 OT
- 03.10away · Fribourg2:1
- 01.10Langnau Tigers1:5
- 29.09Davos0:3
- 26.09away · Lugano5:3
- 10.10away · Biel3:2
- 09.10Zurich2:3 OT
- 07.10away · Lausanne5:2
- 04.10away · Ajoie4:5
- 02.10Rapperswil-Jona5:2
Head to head
- 26.09.2026Lugano — Ambri-Piotta3:5
- 29.01.2026Ambri-Piotta — Lugano3:2
- 28.11.2025Lugano — Ambri-Piotta5:1
- 28.10.2025Ambri-Piotta — Lugano2:5
- 30.09.2025Lugano — Ambri-Piotta1:2
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finals | Ajoie | 11 | 2 | -3 | 16 |
| 6, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finals | Lugano | 10 | 4 | +3 | 15 |
| 7, Play-in round for the quarter-finals | Lausanne | 11 | 4 | -4 | 15 |
| 8, Play-in round for the quarter-finals | Ambri-Piotta | 10 | 4 | -6 | 15 |
| 9, Play-in round for the quarter-finals | Bern | 9 | 3 | +1 | 14 |
National League on the same day
- BernZugpreliminary57431The model's most likely outcome: 123%Model's score: 3:14.6
- EHC KlotenZurichpreliminary35652The model's most likely outcome: 222%Model's score: 1:34.6
- LausanneDavospreliminary54461The model's most likely outcome: 122%Model's score: 3:25.1
- Rapperswil-JonaAjoiepreliminary70301The model's most likely outcome: 120%Model's score: 4:25.4
- ServetteBielpreliminary62381The model's most likely outcome: 121%Model's score: 4:25.4
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 42% will not happen in roughly 58 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →