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KHL · Monday, 28 September, MSK · G-Drive Arena

Avangard Omsk — Magnitogorsk

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Model prediction and result

1:5Missed
Avangard Omsk40%
Draw in regulation22%
Magnitogorsk38%
Model estimate at MSK, the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 1:5: the model's most likely outcome, Avangard Omsk to win (51% incl. overtime), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 51% fails in about 49 matches out of 100 on average.

Close to a coin flip: Avangard Omsk 51%, Magnitogorsk 49% including overtime.

5.2 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (5.2).

Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 47%.

Why

  • The teams are almost level on expected goals: 2.7 and 2.6.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Avangard Omsk — Magnitogorsk2.6–2.6
Avangard Omsk to win (incl. OT and shootout)51%
Magnitogorsk to win (incl. OT and shootout)49%
Total over 5.5 (regulation)47%
Total under 5.5 (regulation)53%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Totals incl. OT
  • Handicap Avangard Omsk
  • Avangard Omsk goals
  • Overtime chance
  • Full score grid
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Form

Avangard Omsk

  • 24.09away · Spartak Moscow2:1 OT
  • 22.09away · Nizhny Novgorod1:5
  • 20.09away · Tractor Chelyabinsk1:2
  • 18.09away · Lokomotiv Yaroslavl1:2
  • 15.09Yekaterinburg3:2 OT

Magnitogorsk

  • 26.09Bars Kazan2:1
  • 23.09away · Salavat Ufa4:3
  • 20.09Niznekamsk6:2
  • 18.09Barys Astana3:0
  • 16.09Spartak Moscow2:3

Head to head

  • 13.09.2026Avangard Omsk — Magnitogorsk3:2 OT
  • 27.02.2026Avangard Omsk — Magnitogorsk3:2 OT
  • 08.01.2026Magnitogorsk — Avangard Omsk2:1
  • 26.12.2025Avangard Omsk — Magnitogorsk2:1 SO
  • 27.11.2025Magnitogorsk — Avangard Omsk1:3

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWOTLLGoals+/−Pts
1, Playoffs: top 8 in each conferenceMagnitogorsk16121351–30+2125
2, Playoffs: top 8 in each conferenceCSKA Moscow14110349–27+2222
18Novosibirsk1553733–45-1213
19Avangard Omsk1360722–34-1212
20Tractor Chelyabinsk1350824–33-910

Season 2026/27 · 2 points for a win, 1 for an overtime or shootout loss

Full table

Next matches

  • ShanghaiMagnitogorsk30 September · KHL
    2The most likely outcome did not happen: 218%Final score 4:1. Model's score: 2:5.6.1
  • Avangard OmskLada2 October · KHL
    1The most likely outcome came true: 117%Final score 4:1. Model's score: 4:1, exactly right.5.2

KHL on the same day

  • Dinamo MinskLada
    1The most likely outcome came true: 115%Final score 5:4. Model's score: 4:1.5.7
  • Dynamo MoscowTractor Chelyabinsk
    1The most likely outcome did not happen: 122%Final score 1:2 in overtime. Model's score: 4:1.5.0
  • Nizhny NovgorodSalavat Ufa
    2The most likely outcome came true: 222%Final score 0:3. Model's score: 2:3.4.9
  • ShanghaiSochi
    1The most likely outcome came true: 120%Final score 4:1. Model's score: 4:1, exactly right.5.5

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 40% will not happen in roughly 60 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →