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KHL · Monday, 28 September, MSK · VOLGA Arena

Nizhny Novgorod — Salavat Ufa

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Model prediction and result

0:3Came true
Nizhny Novgorod39%
Draw in regulation22%
Salavat Ufa39%
Model estimate at MSK, the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 0:3: the model's most likely outcome, Salavat Ufa to win (51% incl. overtime), came true.

Close to a coin flip: Nizhny Novgorod 49%, Salavat Ufa 51% including overtime.

4.9 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (5.2).

Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 41%.

Why

  • The teams are almost level on expected goals: 2.5 and 2.5.

Facts

  • Last 5 meetings: Nizhny Novgorod 1 win, Salavat Ufa 4.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Nizhny Novgorod — Salavat Ufa2.5–2.5
Nizhny Novgorod to win (incl. OT and shootout)49%
Salavat Ufa to win (incl. OT and shootout)51%
Total over 5.5 (regulation)41%
Total under 5.5 (regulation)59%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Totals incl. OT
  • Handicap Nizhny Novgorod
  • Nizhny Novgorod goals
  • Overtime chance
  • Full score grid
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Form

Nizhny Novgorod

  • 24.09Sochi3:0
  • 22.09Avangard Omsk5:1
  • 18.09CSKA Moscow2:3
  • 14.09Bars Kazan3:2
  • 11.09away · Lada7:2

Salavat Ufa

  • 26.09away · Dynamo Moscow3:1
  • 23.09Magnitogorsk3:4
  • 20.09Spartak Moscow3:1
  • 18.09Niznekamsk2:0
  • 16.09Bars Kazan3:4 OT

Head to head

  • 31.01.2026Salavat Ufa — Nizhny Novgorod3:1
  • 06.09.2025Nizhny Novgorod — Salavat Ufa4:3
  • 09.11.2024Nizhny Novgorod — Salavat Ufa2:3 OT
  • 24.10.2024Salavat Ufa — Nizhny Novgorod5:4
  • 24.10.2023Nizhny Novgorod — Salavat Ufa0:1

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWOTLLGoals+/−Pts
4, Playoffs: top 8 in each conferenceCherepovets1592435–31+420
5, Playoffs: top 8 in each conferenceNizhny Novgorod1491440–25+1519
6, Playoffs: top 8 in each conferenceNiznekamsk1582547–38+918
10, Playoffs: top 8 in each conferenceKhabarovsk1581624–22+217
11, Playoffs: top 8 in each conferenceSalavat Ufa1681748–51-317
12, Playoffs: top 8 in each conferenceDinamo Minsk1565442–48-617

Season 2026/27 · 2 points for a win, 1 for an overtime or shootout loss

Full table

Next matches

  • SochiSalavat Ufa30 September · KHL
    2The most likely outcome did not happen: 219%Final score 6:3. Model's score: 1:4.5.0
  • Dynamo MoscowNizhny Novgorod1 October · KHL
    1The most likely outcome did not happen: 122%Final score 1:3. Model's score: 4:1.4.8

KHL on the same day

  • Avangard OmskMagnitogorsk
    1The most likely outcome did not happen: 122%Final score 1:5. Model's score: 4:1.5.2
  • Dinamo MinskLada
    1The most likely outcome came true: 115%Final score 5:4. Model's score: 4:1.5.7
  • Dynamo MoscowTractor Chelyabinsk
    1The most likely outcome did not happen: 122%Final score 1:2 in overtime. Model's score: 4:1.5.0
  • ShanghaiSochi
    1The most likely outcome came true: 120%Final score 4:1. Model's score: 4:1, exactly right.5.5

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 39% will not happen in roughly 61 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →