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VHL (All-Russian Hockey League) · Friday, 16 October, MSK

Bars — SKA-VMF St. Petersburg

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Model prediction for 16 October

Bars36%
Draw in regulation24%
SKA-VMF St. Petersburg40%
Model estimate at MSK

In short

Close to a coin flip: Bars 48%, SKA-VMF St. Petersburg 52% including overtime.

The model expects few goals: 4.3 in total, against a competition average of 4.7.

Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 30%.

Why

  • The teams are almost level on expected goals: 2.1 and 2.2.

Facts

  • League table: Bars — No. 10, 17 pts; SKA-VMF St. Petersburg — No. 11, 16 pts. A gap of 1 pt.
  • Bars: 5 wins in a row.
  • Last 5 meetings: Bars 4 wins, SKA-VMF St. Petersburg 1.
  • Days of rest before the match: Bars 2, SKA-VMF St. Petersburg 4.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Bars — SKA-VMF St. Petersburg2.1–2.2
Bars to win (incl. OT and shootout)48%
SKA-VMF St. Petersburg to win (incl. OT and shootout)52%
Total over 5.5 (regulation)30%
Total under 5.5 (regulation)70%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Totals incl. OT
  • Handicap Bars
  • Bars goals
  • Overtime chance
  • Full score grid
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Form

Bars

  • 14.10Dinamo St. Petersburg4:2
  • 12.10Zvezda Moscow5:2
  • 10.10Khimik2:1
  • 06.10away · Gornyak3:2
  • 04.10away · Chelmet Chelyabinsk4:3

SKA-VMF St. Petersburg

  • 12.10away · CSK VVS5:0
  • 05.10Dinamo St. Petersburg3:0
  • 02.10away · Khimik0:1
  • 30.09away · Zvezda Moscow3:1
  • 20.09Gornyak3:1

Head to head

  • 05.01.2026SKA-VMF St. Petersburg — Bars0:2
  • 17.11.2025Bars — SKA-VMF St. Petersburg3:0
  • 27.02.2025Bars — SKA-VMF St. Petersburg3:2
  • 21.09.2024SKA-VMF St. Petersburg — Bars3:2 SO
  • 05.12.2023SKA-VMF St. Petersburg — Bars2:3

Full record: 6 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWOTLLGoals+/−Pts
9, PlayoffsKhimik1482446–28+1818
10, PlayoffsBars1581639–46-717
11, PlayoffsSKA-VMF St. Petersburg1280432–21+1116
12, PlayoffsPerm1280430–23+716

Season 2026/27 · 2 points for a win, 1 for an overtime or shootout loss

Full table

VHL on the same day

  • AKMGornyak
    2The model's most likely outcome: 222%Model's score: 2:35.1
  • KalugaChelmet Chelyabinsk
    1The model's most likely outcome: 124%Model's score: 2:14.0

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 40% will not happen in roughly 60 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →