Swiss National League (hockey) · Friday, 16 October, 20:45 MSK

Biel — Ajoie

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Model prediction for 16 October

Biel59%

Draw in regulation19%

Ajoie22%

Model estimate at 23:15 MSK

In short

Biel are clear favourites: 71% to win including overtime and shootout.

5.5 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (5.4).

Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 52%.

Why

Biel are more dangerous in attack: 3.4 expected goals against 2.2.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Biel — Ajoie		3.4–2.2
Biel to win (incl. OT and shootout)		71%
Ajoie to win (incl. OT and shootout)		29%
Total over 5.5 (regulation)		52%
Total under 5.5 (regulation)		48%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

All totals
Totals incl. OT
Handicap Biel
Biel goals
Overtime chance
Full score grid

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Form

Biel

10.10Lugano2:3
09.10away · Bern2:4
03.10Davos4:3
02.10away · Lausanne4:7
29.09away · Zurich3:6

Ajoie

10.10Langnau Tigers5:4 OT
08.10away · Fribourg2:7
04.10Lugano5:4
02.10away · Davos1:3
29.09Lausanne3:0

Head to head

27.01.2026Biel — Ajoie6:3
09.01.2026Ajoie — Biel1:2
19.11.2025Ajoie — Biel3:4 OT
27.09.2025Biel — Ajoie5:4 SO
31.01.2025Biel — Ajoie3:4 OT

Full record: 12 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#	Team	P	W	OTW	OTL	L	Goals	+/−	Pts
4, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finals	Fribourg	11	4	2	2	3	38–29	+9	18
5, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finals	Ajoie	11	2	4	2	3	35–38	-3	16
6, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finals	Lugano	10	4	1	1	4	36–33	+3	15
12	Rapperswil-Jona	11	2	2	1	6	28–42	-14	11
13, Relegation play-off	Biel	10	3	0	1	6	31–35	-4	10
14, Relegation play-off	EHC Kloten	11	2	1	1	7	23–40	-17	9

Season 2026/27 · 3 points for a regulation win, 2 for an overtime or shootout win, 1 for an overtime or shootout loss

Full table

National League on the same day

20:45
BernLausanne
5446
1The model's most likely outcome: 123%Model's score: 3:14.8
20:45
EHC KlotenAmbri-Piotta
5446
1The model's most likely outcome: 122%Model's score: 3:24.9
20:45
LuganoDavos
5347
1The model's most likely outcome: 122%Model's score: 3:25.1
20:45
ServetteLangnau Tigers
5941
1The model's most likely outcome: 121%Model's score: 3:25.3
20:45
ZurichRapperswil-Jona
7327
1The model's most likely outcome: 119%Model's score: 3:15.1

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 59% will not happen in roughly 41 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →