AHL (American Hockey League) · Sunday, 18 October, MSK

Chicago Wolves — Iowa Wild

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Model prediction for 18 October

Chicago Wolves45%
Draw in regulation21%
Iowa Wild34%
Model estimate at MSK

In short

Chicago Wolves are favourites: 56% to win including overtime and shootout.

5.6 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (5.8).

Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 54%.

Why

  • Chicago Wolves are more dangerous in attack: 3.0 expected goals against 2.6.

Facts

  • League table: Chicago Wolves — No. 32, 0 pts; Iowa Wild — No. 16, 5 pts. A gap of 5 pts.
  • Chicago Wolves: 5 defeats in a row.
  • Last 5 meetings: Chicago Wolves 3 wins, Iowa Wild 2.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Chicago Wolves — Iowa Wild3.0–2.6
Chicago Wolves to win (incl. OT and shootout)56%
Iowa Wild to win (incl. OT and shootout)44%
Total over 5.5 (regulation)54%
Total under 5.5 (regulation)46%

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Form

Chicago Wolves

  • 11.10away · Grand Rapids Griffins1:5
  • 11.10Manitoba Moose1:6
  • 04.10away · Manitoba Moose3:8
  • 03.10away · Manitoba Moose0:3
  • 20.06away · Toronto Marlies3:4

Iowa Wild

  • 11.10Rockford IceHogs4:3
  • 10.10Rockford IceHogs1:2
  • 04.10away · Texas Stars4:3 SO
  • 03.10away · Texas Stars3:4 SO
  • 19.04Manitoba Moose1:6

Head to head

  • 02.04.2026Iowa Wild — Chicago Wolves0:5
  • 26.03.2026Iowa Wild — Chicago Wolves3:4 SO
  • 23.03.2026Chicago Wolves — Iowa Wild4:6
  • 12.03.2026Chicago Wolves — Iowa Wild2:4
  • 19.02.2026Chicago Wolves — Iowa Wild2:0

Full record: 26 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWOTLLGoals+/−PtsP%
15San Diego Gulls421114–12+25.625
16Iowa Wild421112–1205.625
17Springfield Thunderbirds42118–9-15.625
31Lehigh Valley Phantoms30128–15-71.167
32Chicago Wolves40045–22-170.000

Season 2026/27 · 2 points for a win, 1 for an overtime or shootout loss, ranked by points percentage

Full table

AHL on the same day

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 45% will not happen in roughly 55 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →