AHL (American Hockey League) · Monday, 12 October, MSK · Acrisure Arena
Coachella Valley Firebirds — Ontario Reign
☆ Save matchModel prediction and result
In short
Final score 2:3 OT: the model's most likely outcome, Coachella Valley Firebirds to win (51% incl. overtime), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 51% fails in about 49 matches out of 100 on average.
Close to a coin flip: Coachella Valley Firebirds 51%, Ontario Reign 49% including overtime.
5.6 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (5.8).
Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 53%.
Why
- The teams are almost level on expected goals: 2.8 and 2.8.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Coachella Valley Firebirds — Ontario Reign | 2.8–2.8 | |
| Coachella Valley Firebirds to win (incl. OT and shootout) | 51% | |
| Ontario Reign to win (incl. OT and shootout) | 49% | |
| Total over 5.5 (regulation) | 53% | |
| Total under 5.5 (regulation) | 47% |
111 more model lines in Premium
All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Totals incl. OT
- Handicap Coachella Valley Firebirds
- Coachella Valley Firebirds goals
- Overtime chance
- Full score grid
Form
- 10.10San Diego Gulls6:3
- 04.10away · Ontario Reign6:2
- 03.10Ontario Reign5:6 OT
- 21.05away · Colorado Eagles2:3
- 18.05away · Colorado Eagles1:4
- 04.10Coachella Valley Firebirds2:6
- 03.10away · Coachella Valley Firebirds6:5 OT
- 10.05Coachella Valley Firebirds2:3 OT
- 08.05away · Coachella Valley Firebirds2:6
- 06.05away · Coachella Valley Firebirds2:1
Head to head
- 04.10.2026Ontario Reign — Coachella Valley Firebirds2:6
- 03.10.2026Coachella Valley Firebirds — Ontario Reign5:6 OT
- 10.05.2026Ontario Reign — Coachella Valley Firebirds2:3 OT
- 08.05.2026Coachella Valley Firebirds — Ontario Reign6:2
- 06.05.2026Coachella Valley Firebirds — Ontario Reign1:2
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts | P% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Cleveland Monsters | 4 | 3 | +2 | 6 | .750 |
| 10 | Coachella Valley Firebirds | 4 | 2 | +5 | 6 | .750 |
| 11 | Grand Rapids Griffins | 5 | 3 | +4 | 7 | .700 |
| 12 | Ontario Reign | 3 | 2 | -2 | 4 | .667 |
| 13 | Wilkes-Barre/Scranton | 4 | 2 | +8 | 5 | .625 |
Next matches
- Henderson Silver KnightsCoachella Valley Firebirds15 October · AHL50502The model's most likely outcome: 221%Model's score: 2:35.8
- San Diego GullsOntario Reign15 October · AHL44562The model's most likely outcome: 222%Model's score: 2:35.4
AHL on the same day
- 47532The most likely outcome came true: 221%2:4Final score 2:4. Model's score: 2:4, exactly right.5.8
- 55451The most likely outcome came true: 121%6:1Final score 6:1. Model's score: 4:2.5.8
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 40% will not happen in roughly 60 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →