KHL · Sunday, 11 October, MSK · VTB Arena
Dynamo Moscow — SKA St. Petersburg
☆ Save matchModel prediction and result
4:3 OTCame true
In short
Final score 4:3 OT: the model's most likely outcome, Dynamo Moscow to win (53% incl. overtime), came true.
Close to a coin flip: Dynamo Moscow 53%, SKA St. Petersburg 47% including overtime.
5.1 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (5.2).
Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 44%.
Why
- The teams are almost level on expected goals: 2.6 and 2.5.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Dynamo Moscow — SKA St. Petersburg | 2.6–2.5 | |
| Dynamo Moscow to win (incl. OT and shootout) | 53% | |
| SKA St. Petersburg to win (incl. OT and shootout) | 47% | |
| Total over 5.5 (regulation) | 44% | |
| Total under 5.5 (regulation) | 56% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Totals incl. OT
- Handicap Dynamo Moscow
- Dynamo Moscow goals
- Overtime chance
- Full score grid
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Form
- 09.10CSKA Moscow2:5
- 07.10Shanghai2:3
- 03.10away · CSKA Moscow3:4 SO
- 01.10Nizhny Novgorod1:3
- 28.09Tractor Chelyabinsk1:2 OT
- 08.10away · Dinamo Minsk2:4
- 06.10Cherepovets2:5
- 03.10Vladivostok6:5 SO
- 29.09away · CSKA Moscow5:6
- 27.09away · Barys Astana5:3
Head to head
- 07.09.2026SKA St. Petersburg — Dynamo Moscow5:3
- 07.03.2026Dynamo Moscow — SKA St. Petersburg1:2 OT
- 26.02.2026SKA St. Petersburg — Dynamo Moscow1:4
- 08.11.2025Dynamo Moscow — SKA St. Petersburg2:3
- 04.11.2025SKA St. Petersburg — Dynamo Moscow1:2
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7, Playoffs: top 8 in each conference | Shanghai | 12 | 8 | +7 | 17 |
| 8, Playoffs: top 8 in each conference | SKA St. Petersburg | 14 | 8 | +3 | 17 |
| 9, Playoffs: top 8 in each conference | Khabarovsk | 14 | 8 | +3 | 17 |
| 15, Playoffs: top 8 in each conference | Yekaterinburg | 13 | 6 | +2 | 14 |
| 16 | Dynamo Moscow | 16 | 6 | -13 | 14 |
| 17, Playoffs: top 8 in each conference | Vladivostok | 14 | 5 | -4 | 13 |
Next matches
- CherepovetsSKA St. Petersburg13 October · KHL51491The most likely outcome came true: 122%2:0Final score 2:0. Model's score: 3:2.5.4
- CSKA MoscowDynamo Moscow14 October · KHL60401The model's most likely outcome: 123%Model's score: 2:14.2
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 41% will not happen in roughly 59 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →