Swiss National League (hockey) · Friday, 30 October, 21:45 MSK

Fribourg — Servette

Model prediction for 30 October

Fribourg51%

Draw in regulation21%

Servette28%

Model estimate at 23:15 MSK

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Fribourg are clear favourites: 63% to win including overtime and shootout.

The model expects few goals: 5.0 in total, against a competition average of 5.4.

Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 43%.

Why

Fribourg are more dangerous in attack: 2.8 expected goals against 2.2.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Fribourg — Servette		2.8–2.2
Fribourg to win (incl. OT and shootout)		63%
Servette to win (incl. OT and shootout)		37%
Total over 5.5 (regulation)		43%
Total under 5.5 (regulation)		57%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

All totals
Totals incl. OT
Handicap Fribourg
Fribourg goals
Overtime chance
Full score grid

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Form

Fribourg

10.10away · Zurich4:5 OT
08.10Ajoie7:2
03.10Ambri-Piotta1:2
02.10away · EHC Kloten4:1
29.09Bern5:2

Servette

10.10Davos3:2
04.10Zug2:1
02.10away · Bern3:2 SO
30.09away · Lausanne5:6 SO
29.09EHC Kloten4:0

Head to head

25.09.2026Servette — Fribourg4:3 SO
12.04.2026Fribourg — Servette6:2
10.04.2026Servette — Fribourg3:4
08.04.2026Fribourg — Servette2:1
06.04.2026Servette — Fribourg7:3

Full record: 18 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#	Team	P	W	OTW	OTL	L	Goals	+/−	Pts
1, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finals	Zurich	10	7	3	0	0	42–24	+18	27
2, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finals	Servette	11	5	2	2	2	33–29	+4	21
3, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finals	Langnau Tigers	11	5	1	2	3	41–34	+7	19
4, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finals	Fribourg	11	4	2	2	3	38–29	+9	18
5, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finals	Ajoie	11	2	4	2	3	35–38	-3	16

Season 2026/27 · 3 points for a regulation win, 2 for an overtime or shootout win, 1 for an overtime or shootout loss

Full table

National League on the same day

21:45
AjoieBernpreliminary
3862
2The model's most likely outcome: 222%Model's score: 1:34.9
21:45
BielEHC Klotenpreliminary
6436
1The model's most likely outcome: 121%Model's score: 4:25.0
21:45
DavosRapperswil-Jonapreliminary
6931
1The model's most likely outcome: 120%Model's score: 4:25.3
21:45
ZugLangnau Tigerspreliminary
5842
1The model's most likely outcome: 122%Model's score: 4:25.1
21:45
ZurichAmbri-Piottapreliminary
7525
1The model's most likely outcome: 119%Model's score: 4:15.2

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 51% will not happen in roughly 49 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →