SHL (Swedish Hockey League) · Tuesday, 20 October, MSK

Frolunda — Djurgarden

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Model prediction for 20 October

Frolunda62%
Draw in regulation19%
Djurgarden19%
Model estimate at MSK

In short

Frolunda are clear favourites: 74% to win including overtime and shootout.

The model expects few goals: 4.9 in total, against a competition average of 5.3.

Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 41%.

Why

  • Frolunda are more dangerous in attack: 3.1 expected goals against 1.8.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Frolunda — Djurgarden3.1–1.8
Frolunda to win (incl. OT and shootout)74%
Djurgarden to win (incl. OT and shootout)26%
Total over 5.5 (regulation)41%
Total under 5.5 (regulation)59%

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Form

Frolunda

  • 10.10away · IF Bjorkloven2:3
  • 08.10away · Timra1:4
  • 03.10Djurgarden4:2
  • 01.10Brynas2:1
  • 26.09away · Malmo2:1

Djurgarden

  • 10.10Linkoping5:1
  • 08.10Orebro2:1
  • 03.10away · Frolunda2:4
  • 01.10Farjestad0:4
  • 26.09away · Timra2:3 OT

Head to head

  • 03.10.2026Frolunda — Djurgarden4:2
  • 12.03.2026Frolunda — Djurgarden1:3
  • 17.01.2026Djurgarden — Frolunda1:6
  • 04.12.2025Frolunda — Djurgarden3:2 OT
  • 23.09.2025Djurgarden — Frolunda2:11

Full record: 5 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWOTWOTLLGoals+/−Pts
1, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finalsFarjestad8701034–8+2622
2, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finalsFrolunda8510226–20+617
3, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finalsIF Bjorkloven8510222–20+217
10, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsVaxjo8211425–30-59
11Djurgarden8211416–22-69
12HV 718121424–29-58

Season 2026/27 · 3 points for a regulation win, 2 for an overtime or shootout win, 1 for an overtime or shootout loss

Full table

SHL on the same day

  • 1The model's most likely outcome: 122%Model's score: 4:25.0

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 62% will not happen in roughly 38 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →