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Belarus Extraleague (hockey) · Monday, 5 October, MSK

Gomel — Lokomotiv Orsha

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Model prediction and result

5:2Came true
Gomel69%
Draw in regulation16%
Lokomotiv Orsha14%
Model estimate at MSK, the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 5:2: the model's most likely outcome, Gomel to win (81% incl. overtime), came true.

Gomel are clear favourites: 81% to win including overtime and shootout.

The model expects plenty of goals: 5.5 in total, against a competition average of 5.1.

Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 52%.

Why

  • Gomel are more dangerous in attack: 3.7 expected goals against 1.8.

Facts

  • Last 5 meetings: Gomel 4 wins, Lokomotiv Orsha 1.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Gomel — Lokomotiv Orsha3.7–1.9
Gomel to win (incl. OT and shootout)81%
Lokomotiv Orsha to win (incl. OT and shootout)19%
Total over 5.5 (regulation)52%
Total under 5.5 (regulation)48%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Totals incl. OT
  • Handicap Gomel
  • Gomel goals
  • Overtime chance
  • Full score grid
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Form

Gomel

  • 03.10Lokomotiv Orsha4:3
  • 29.09away · Novopolotsk1:3
  • 27.09away · Novopolotsk5:0
  • 24.09away · Brest1:2
  • 22.09away · Brest7:4

Lokomotiv Orsha

  • 03.10away · Gomel3:4
  • 29.09Lida5:4 SO
  • 27.09Lida4:5
  • 24.09away · Vitebsk1:4
  • 22.09away · Vitebsk0:3

Head to head

  • 03.10.2026Gomel — Lokomotiv Orsha4:3
  • 23.02.2026Gomel — Lokomotiv Orsha5:2
  • 21.02.2026Gomel — Lokomotiv Orsha3:2 SO
  • 12.11.2025Lokomotiv Orsha — Gomel3:0
  • 10.11.2025Lokomotiv Orsha — Gomel1:4

Next matches

  • MogilevGomel9 October · Belarus Extraleague
    2The most likely outcome came true: 220%Final score 2:3. Model's score: 2:4.5.3
  • Lokomotiv OrshaNeman Grodno9 October · Belarus Extraleague
    2The most likely outcome came true: 222%Final score 2:3 in overtime. Model's score: 1:3.4.8

Belarus Extraleague on the same day

  • SoligorskBaranavichy
    1The most likely outcome did not happen: 113%Final score 4:5. Model's score: 4:1.5.9
  • SlavutychVitebsk
    1The most likely outcome came true: 119%Final score 4:3. Model's score: 4:2.5.6

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 69% will not happen in roughly 31 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →