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Kazakhstan Hockey Championship · Friday, 30 October, MSK

Gornyak Rudny — Kokshetau

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Model prediction for 30 October

Gornyak Rudny38%
Draw in regulation22%
Kokshetau41%
Model estimate at MSK

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Close to a coin flip: Gornyak Rudny 48%, Kokshetau 52% including overtime.

The model expects few goals: 5.4 in total, against a competition average of 6.1.

Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 50%.

Why

  • The teams are almost level on expected goals: 2.7 and 2.7.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Gornyak Rudny — Kokshetau2.7–2.8
Gornyak Rudny to win (incl. OT and shootout)48%
Kokshetau to win (incl. OT and shootout)52%
Total over 5.5 (regulation)50%
Total under 5.5 (regulation)50%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Totals incl. OT
  • Handicap Gornyak Rudny
  • Gornyak Rudny goals
  • Overtime chance
  • Full score grid
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Form

Gornyak Rudny

  • 12.10away · Almaty2:5
  • 11.10away · Almaty3:0
  • 07.10Karaganda1:4
  • 06.10Karaganda5:3
  • 03.10Aktobe7:1

Kokshetau

  • 11.10Nomad Astana2:4
  • 10.10Nomad Astana3:2 OT
  • 07.10away · Kulager4:3
  • 06.10away · Kulager4:3
  • 03.10Almaty3:2

Head to head

  • 03.09.2026Kokshetau — Gornyak Rudny1:3
  • 02.09.2026Kokshetau — Gornyak Rudny3:1
  • 07.01.2026Kokshetau — Gornyak Rudny2:1 OT
  • 06.01.2026Kokshetau — Gornyak Rudny4:3 SO
  • 18.12.2025Kokshetau — Gornyak Rudny5:1

Full record: 17 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWOTLLGoals+/−Pts
2, PlayoffsTorpedo18132388–36+5228
3, PlayoffsKokshetau18131464–43+2127
4, PlayoffsGornyak Rudny18121571–44+2725
5, PlayoffsKaraganda18112573–44+2924

Season 2026/27 · 2 points for a win, 1 for an overtime or shootout loss

Full table

Kazakhstan Championship on the same day

  • TorpedoNomad Astanapreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 121%Model's score: 4:25.5
  • KaragandaAlmatypreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 115%Model's score: 4:15.8
  • PavlodarAktobepreliminary
    2The model's most likely outcome: 211%Model's score: 2:57.1

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 41% will not happen in roughly 59 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →