Kazakhstan Hockey Championship · Friday, 30 October, 17:00 MSK

Karaganda — Almaty

Model prediction for 30 October

Karaganda74%

Draw in regulation15%

Almaty12%

Model estimate at 20:53 MSK

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Karaganda are clear favourites: 84% to win including overtime and shootout.

5.8 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (6.1).

Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 57%.

Why

Karaganda are more dangerous in attack: 4.0 expected goals against 1.8.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Karaganda — Almaty		4.0–1.8
Karaganda to win (incl. OT and shootout)		84%
Almaty to win (incl. OT and shootout)		16%
Total over 5.5 (regulation)		57%
Total under 5.5 (regulation)		43%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

All totals
Totals incl. OT
Handicap Karaganda
Karaganda goals
Overtime chance
Full score grid

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Form

Karaganda

11.10away · Kulager1:2 SO
10.10away · Kulager3:1
07.10away · Gornyak Rudny4:1
06.10away · Gornyak Rudny3:5
02.10Pavlodar9:0

Almaty

12.10Gornyak Rudny5:2
11.10Gornyak Rudny0:3
07.10away · Beibarys Atyrau3:5
06.10away · Beibarys Atyrau4:1
03.10away · Kokshetau2:3

Head to head

17.09.2026Almaty — Karaganda2:5
16.09.2026Almaty — Karaganda6:3
20.01.2026Almaty — Karaganda4:5 OT
19.01.2026Almaty — Karaganda1:4
19.12.2025Almaty — Karaganda2:3 OT

Full record: 24 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#	Team	P	W	OTL	L	Goals	+/−	Pts
4, Playoffs	Gornyak Rudny	18	12	1	5	71–44	+27	25
5, Playoffs	Karaganda	18	11	2	5	73–44	+29	24
6, Playoffs	Kulager	18	9	4	5	64–52	+12	22
7, Playoffs	Almaty	18	9	0	9	49–57	-8	18
8, Playoffs	Aktobe	18	4	1	13	45–83	-38	9

Season 2026/27 · 2 points for a win, 1 for an overtime or shootout loss

Full table

Kazakhstan Championship on the same day

16:30
TorpedoNomad Astanapreliminary
6436
1The model's most likely outcome: 121%Model's score: 4:25.5
17:00
Gornyak RudnyKokshetaupreliminary
4852
2The model's most likely outcome: 222%Model's score: 2:35.4
17:00
PavlodarAktobepreliminary
1288
2The model's most likely outcome: 211%Model's score: 2:57.1

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 74% will not happen in roughly 26 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →