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Liiga (Finnish hockey league) · Friday, 16 October, MSK

Hameenlinna — Ilves

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Model prediction for 16 October

Hameenlinna29%
Draw in regulation23%
Ilves48%
Model estimate at MSK

In short

Ilves are favourites: 61% to win including overtime and shootout.

The model expects few goals: 4.6 in total, against a competition average of 5.3.

Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 36%.

Why

  • Ilves are more dangerous in attack: 2.6 expected goals against 2.0.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Hameenlinna — Ilves2.0–2.6
Hameenlinna to win (incl. OT and shootout)39%
Ilves to win (incl. OT and shootout)61%
Total over 5.5 (regulation)36%
Total under 5.5 (regulation)64%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Totals incl. OT
  • Handicap Hameenlinna
  • Hameenlinna goals
  • Overtime chance
  • Full score grid
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Form

Hameenlinna

  • 10.10KooKoo5:3
  • 09.10away · Assat3:2 SO
  • 03.10Karpat2:1 OT
  • 02.10JYP2:1
  • 29.09away · Jokerit0:3

Ilves

  • 10.10away · Jokerit3:0
  • 09.10Lukko1:5
  • 07.10away · Vaasan Sport1:2
  • 03.10Kiekko-Espoo6:4
  • 29.09Jukurit3:2

Head to head

  • 08.09.2026Hameenlinna — Ilves0:4
  • 10.03.2026Ilves — Hameenlinna3:1
  • 26.12.2025Hameenlinna — Ilves3:8
  • 04.12.2025Ilves — Hameenlinna3:2
  • 15.11.2025Hameenlinna — Ilves2:3 OT

Full record: 13 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWOTWOTLLGoals+/−Pts
1, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finalsIlves12810336–24+1226
2, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finalsJukurit14630536–29+724
9, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsTappara11520432–24+819
10, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsHameenlinna12430528–35-718
11, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsTPS Turku11501529–25+416

Season 2026/27 · 3 points for a regulation win, 2 for an overtime or shootout win, 1 for an overtime or shootout loss

Full table

Liiga on the same day

  • JokeritAssat
    2The model's most likely outcome: 223%Model's score: 1:34.7
  • PelicansVaasan Sport
    1The model's most likely outcome: 122%Model's score: 3:14.3
  • TapparaLukko
    1The model's most likely outcome: 122%Model's score: 4:25.2
  • TPS TurkuKiekko-Espoo
    1The model's most likely outcome: 123%Model's score: 3:24.8
  • JYPKarpat
    1The model's most likely outcome: 121%Model's score: 4:25.7

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 48% will not happen in roughly 52 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →