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Liiga (Finnish hockey league) · Tuesday, 20 October, MSK

Hameenlinna — Pelicans

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Model prediction for 20 October

Hameenlinna38%
Draw in regulation24%
Pelicans38%
Model estimate at MSK

In short

Close to a coin flip: Hameenlinna 50%, Pelicans 50% including overtime.

The model expects few goals: 4.1 in total, against a competition average of 5.3.

Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 27%.

Why

  • The teams are almost level on expected goals: 2.1 and 2.0.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Hameenlinna — Pelicans2.1–2.0
Hameenlinna to win (incl. OT and shootout)50%
Pelicans to win (incl. OT and shootout)50%
Total over 5.5 (regulation)27%
Total under 5.5 (regulation)73%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Totals incl. OT
  • Handicap Hameenlinna
  • Hameenlinna goals
  • Overtime chance
  • Full score grid
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Form

Hameenlinna

  • 10.10KooKoo5:3
  • 09.10away · Assat3:2 SO
  • 03.10Karpat2:1 OT
  • 02.10JYP2:1
  • 29.09away · Jokerit0:3

Pelicans

  • 09.10Karpat2:3 OT
  • 03.10away · KooKoo6:3
  • 26.09IFK Helsinki2:1
  • 22.09away · Jokerit0:3
  • 19.09JYP1:3

Head to head

  • 14.03.2026Hameenlinna — Pelicans1:4
  • 13.03.2026Pelicans — Hameenlinna3:2 SO
  • 10.01.2026Pelicans — Hameenlinna1:4
  • 01.11.2025Hameenlinna — Pelicans2:1 OT
  • 31.10.2025Pelicans — Hameenlinna5:2

Full record: 16 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWOTWOTLLGoals+/−Pts
9, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsTappara11520432–24+819
10, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsHameenlinna12430528–35-718
11, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsTPS Turku11501529–25+416
12, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsPelicans10501424–23+116
13, Relegation play-offKalPa11401627–29-213

Season 2026/27 · 3 points for a regulation win, 2 for an overtime or shootout win, 1 for an overtime or shootout loss

Full table

Liiga on the same day

  • KooKooTappara
    2The model's most likely outcome: 221%Model's score: 2:35.7
  • LukkoIFK Helsinki
    1The model's most likely outcome: 121%Model's score: 4:25.0
  • SaiPaKarpat
    1The model's most likely outcome: 121%Model's score: 4:25.5
  • TPS TurkuIlves
    2The model's most likely outcome: 223%Model's score: 1:34.8
  • Vaasan SportJukurit
    2The model's most likely outcome: 224%Model's score: 1:24.4

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 38% will not happen in roughly 62 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →