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VHL (All-Russian Hockey League) · Sunday, 1 November, MSK

HC Norilsk — Zvezda Moscow

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Model prediction for 1 November

HC Norilsk38%
Draw in regulation23%
Zvezda Moscow39%
Model estimate at MSK

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Close to a coin flip: HC Norilsk 49%, Zvezda Moscow 51% including overtime.

4.8 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (4.7).

Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 39%.

Why

  • The teams are almost level on expected goals: 2.4 and 2.4.

Probabilities

Expected goals: HC Norilsk — Zvezda Moscow2.4–2.4
HC Norilsk to win (incl. OT and shootout)49%
Zvezda Moscow to win (incl. OT and shootout)51%
Total over 5.5 (regulation)39%
Total under 5.5 (regulation)61%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Totals incl. OT
  • Handicap HC Norilsk
  • HC Norilsk goals
  • Overtime chance
  • Full score grid
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Form

HC Norilsk

  • 12.10Perm3:1
  • 10.10Toros Neftekamsk5:3
  • 08.10Izhevsk3:2
  • 06.10Olympia3:2
  • 01.10away · Kristall Saratov3:2 SO

Zvezda Moscow

  • 12.10away · Bars2:5
  • 10.10away · Almetyevsk5:3
  • 08.10away · CSK VVS3:2
  • 02.10Dinamo St. Petersburg2:4
  • 30.09SKA-VMF St. Petersburg1:3

Head to head

  • 15.02.2026Zvezda Moscow — HC Norilsk4:1
  • 02.10.2025HC Norilsk — Zvezda Moscow1:2
  • 27.02.2025Zvezda Moscow — HC Norilsk5:4 SO
  • 23.09.2024HC Norilsk — Zvezda Moscow2:4
  • 23.01.2024Zvezda Moscow — HC Norilsk5:1

Full record: 6 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWOTLLGoals+/−Pts
3, PlayoffsOmskie Krylia13100337–19+1820
4, PlayoffsHC Norilsk1592435–33+220
5, PlayoffsOrsk1283135–22+1319
24Olympia1451837–42-511
25Zvezda Moscow1451833–45-1211
26Kurgan1234519–33-1410

Season 2026/27 · 2 points for a win, 1 for an overtime or shootout loss

Full table

VHL on the same day

  • KurganOrskpreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 124%Model's score: 2:13.9
  • Buran VoronezhIzhevskpreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 123%Model's score: 3:14.6
  • DizelOlympiapreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 122%Model's score: 3:14.2

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 39% will not happen in roughly 61 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →