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Liiga (Finnish hockey league) · Saturday, 24 October, MSK

Ilves — Jukurit

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Model prediction for 24 October

Ilves59%
Draw in regulation20%
Jukurit21%
Model estimate at MSK

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Ilves are clear favourites: 72% to win including overtime and shootout.

The model expects few goals: 4.7 in total, against a competition average of 5.3.

Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 38%.

Why

  • Ilves are more dangerous in attack: 2.9 expected goals against 1.8.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Ilves — Jukurit2.9–1.8
Ilves to win (incl. OT and shootout)72%
Jukurit to win (incl. OT and shootout)28%
Total over 5.5 (regulation)38%
Total under 5.5 (regulation)62%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Totals incl. OT
  • Handicap Ilves
  • Ilves goals
  • Overtime chance
  • Full score grid
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Form

Ilves

  • 10.10away · Jokerit3:0
  • 09.10Lukko1:5
  • 07.10away · Vaasan Sport1:2
  • 03.10Kiekko-Espoo6:4
  • 29.09Jukurit3:2

Jukurit

  • 10.10Karpat2:1 OT
  • 09.10away · KooKoo1:4
  • 07.10Assat0:1
  • 03.10KalPa2:1 OT
  • 29.09away · Ilves2:3

Head to head

  • 29.09.2026Ilves — Jukurit3:2
  • 14.02.2026Ilves — Jukurit6:2
  • 24.01.2026Jukurit — Ilves2:3 OT
  • 25.10.2025Ilves — Jukurit3:2
  • 17.09.2025Jukurit — Ilves3:2

Full record: 13 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWOTWOTLLGoals+/−Pts
1, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finalsIlves12810336–24+1226
2, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finalsJukurit14630536–29+724
3, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finalsAssat12612330–27+322

Season 2026/27 · 3 points for a regulation win, 2 for an overtime or shootout win, 1 for an overtime or shootout loss

Full table

Liiga on the same day

  • HameenlinnaIFK Helsinkipreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 123%Model's score: 2:14.5
  • JYPAssatpreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 121%Model's score: 3:25.3
  • KarpatKalPapreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 122%Model's score: 3:25.4
  • KooKooJokeritpreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 118%Model's score: 4:15.4
  • PelicansTapparapreliminary
    2The model's most likely outcome: 223%Model's score: 1:34.6
  • TPS TurkuLukkopreliminary
    2The model's most likely outcome: 223%Model's score: 2:34.8
  • Vaasan SportSaiPapreliminary
    2The model's most likely outcome: 222%Model's score: 2:45.0

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 59% will not happen in roughly 41 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →